Seyfi Tashan: Today we will discuss the situation in the Middle East, particularly the Arab world. We had never seen such a development in memory except some smaller uprisings which have been crushed in different parts of the Arab world, for example, in Syria the Hama uprising and in Egypt other uprisings. The Islamic uprising in Algeria was crushed with a lot of bloodshed. Now this time the rise-up covers almost all the Arab countries. What could be the impact of this on the international system? Because, this is a huge area and the final result could be huge transformation in the system.

Resat Arım: It is a certain point in time that is at the end of the Cold War, we thought that the international system was taking a certain shape. But then two wars, one in Iraq and one in Afghanistan really confused the situation to a large extent. So much so that at the beginning of this year when the strategic concept of NATO was being discussed, it was argued that there were a lot of uncertainties in the horizon. What happens in the Arab world is a kind of uncertainty we were expecting to come. And it came. So we’re at the middle of this uncertain situation and we don’t see yet what the outcome will be. Maybe in today’s discussion we can evaluate the result of the upheavals in the Arab world. For the time being we can only see that there are a lot of uncertainties at the global system. It does not permit us to see clearly what will be the new shape of the international system.

Seyfi Tashan: This is a genuine re-awakening, some people call this in the Arab World. This reawakening follows long anti-Islamic attitudes in the Western World since 9/11. There has been quite a number of anti-Islamic sentiments in Western Europe and the United States. Some people attributed this with the expression “cultural difference” but ethnic and religious hostility and xenophobia which exists eventually bring into mind Huntington’s theory of Clash of Civilizations. People in countries like Turkey they felt themselves left in between and have tried to bring the two civilizations together and the alliance of civilizations led by Turkey and Spain must be seen as an effort in this direction. Spain and international organizations such as Council of Europe are trying to help this process. Of course in this respect the change in the Arab world, if it moves in the direction of adoption of international norms of democracy and human rights, will certainly contribute to better relations between religious communities. As a result, Christian West and Islamic Arab World will benefit from this reawakening and will bring global systems closer together. Do you think it may have a positive impact Ambassador Arım?

Resat Arım: There was one part of the world,  kind of isolated,  cut off from the system. If the Arab world can adopt norms which you’ve described, democracy, etc. and come to attach itself to the global system then we may see this will be a positive step.

Seyfi Tashan: May I ask what causes this problem? Reawakening we call it, uprisings; I don’t know how to call them. It certainly characterizes the unrest but is there a common factor for these mega actions? Of course it is a protest against authority. But what are the basic principles in these uprisings? It could be because maybe people are expecting a change not only of the regimes but of the life styles.

Oktay Aksoy: Well, I guess the people in the streets could be exploited by the radical Islamist groups. El- Qaide is one of them and a very strong one. But I guess the objective of the uprising is more than religion. The religious groups have tried to influence developments in the Middle-East earlier and they could not achieve their objectives. They could not overcome global trends. Their influences on democracy, liberal economy and rule of law have remained an archaic view. Therefore, now they are trying a new way, to see if a softened way of Islam can function in a more acceptable way and respected by the rest of the world. The uncertainties that the NATO Strategic Concept mentions are still there, but it is not easy to see how things will develop but at the moment it seems that things are under control in Egypt. There are many youngsters educated in the West. And their outlook is different than the big numbers of people who need more prosperity, more work, more education, of course more health care. It would be difficult to see how much they are satisfied.

Seyfi Tashan: Yes. You have rightly pointed out that idea, uprisings are caused by different factors. You are also right that the Islamic political forces have been crushed substantially by the autocratic rules in the Arab World. And they can attain better opportunity in probably coming to power or retaking authority in a democratic structure. The danger probably will be how the fanatic Islam and the mild Islam can go along with the modern concepts of democracy, gender equality and international economic reforms. These are required in many Arab countries, major changes, big changes. That is very difficult to attain in a rushed order. And therefore I am wondering if these changes can be put in place rather quickly or shall we wait for them as these reawakenings take hold in the Arabic World. In this respect I may consider that some countries in North-Africa are luckier and some countries in Maghreb are also in a happier position than the others. For example Tunisia has greater chance to adopt an internationally known democratic system because firstly Habib  Burgiba reduced the Islamic impact in the country.  Unfortunately his successors are expected to allow people’s aspirations come true. Tunisia as you said has very educated people that can run the country and they will do so in close cooperation with Europe. So I believe it will not be a long process for Tunisia. We can say probably the same for Morocco that, these are countries close to Europe. Algeria, we don’t know yet. Algeria is still an autocratic country. They have crushed the big Islamic rebellion in the past. Now we can wonder when there will be another uprising in Algeria. It seems to be quiet at the moment. In North Africa the present serious problems have been created by president Gaddafi of Libya. Now Libya has brought in the question of outside interferences. The outside interference is anomaly in this process, because all the others more or less have been done by the people themselves. But in Libya the bloodshed seems to have provided an excuse to the Western world to intervene. Now this intervention which reminds very much Afghanistan and Iraq is watched fearfully by many other countries. Of course Turkey’s reluctance in the initial stages to take part in this activity may be attributed to this fear of resemblance with Iraq and Afghanistan. So, what can we expect in Libya? Can we expect a swift return or how can this be brought under normalization? Of course there is a meeting in London and from this meeting I would not expect much. The opposition forces in Libya have been recognized as legitimate government by France, not by NATO and USA, but recognized by France and Qatar. Will it give the opposition enough legitimacy? That is one problem and will it be able to conquer and eradicate the rule of Gaddafi again through war and bloodshed? This is a big problem and what are your views on this Ambassador Arım?

Resat Arım: Yes of course you have mentioned about Iraq and Afghanistan and in all the developments in our world. Probably what has transpired in Iraq and Afghanistan was taken into consideration? But the Libyan case did not take into consideration the Iraq and the Afghan situation. So, there is bloodshed. It also came to the notice of the Security Council and there have been two resolutions on that which prompted also outside intervention. Probably, there will be something in Libya, the end result probably will be something better than Iraq and Afghanistan but not good enough as in the other Arab countries. Finally there has to be kind of an understanding in Libya. Now, Turkey is willing to act as a mediator between the Gaddafi regime and the insurgents in Bingazi. It looks like a small model of Iraq and the situation in Libya will take longer than the other Arab countries to come to a definite situation that is military regime or something like that.

Seyfi Tashan: I agree with you but of course it all depends what Gaddafi will do himself. If he decides to leave his current position and retire than it may be easier to bring a dialog between the opposition and Libyan government. All depends on, how long this crises will continue and the behavior of Gaddafi. I don’t know if you agree Ambassador Aksoy?

Oktay Aksoy: I do. But of course the participants of the London conference will have to find a solution if Gaddafi removes himself from the scene. But his sons, his close officials are also targeted for removal from power and who will take over is not very clear. In Iraq and Afghanistan, there was the possibility to form a front against the Saddam regime and Taliban in Afghanistan but in this case the opposition to Gaddafi is individuals who are opposing to his behavior, to his way of ruling and how in the end they will co-operate with those who are interfering is not very clear. That is a big problem, I guess, but at least President Obama‘s multilateral approach is helpful in forming a coalition of different nations, including the Arabs. So Gaddafi will have difficulty in finding excuse  to continue fighting.

Seyfi Tashan: It is a costly development if opposition forces supported by the international community can succeed in moving up to Tripoli, encircling Tripoli, than there will be a different situation. If Gaddafi resigns than it may not be necessary to attack  Tripoli and spill great amount of blood. Than it may be possible to listen to international efforts for the people of Tripoli or bring the army closer to an agreement with the opposition. There will be a government obviously which will, by necessity,  co-operate with the outside world. It will be the task to help put together Libya in shambles into a form of a government, form of order that the majority accepts. The position of the tribes will be very important. Tribes will also have a great say and it will remind me a little bit of Afghanistan but not entirely. Well, anyway, this is a situation in Maghreb and hopefully within not too far a distance. This situation will crystallize. But what about developments in the Mashrek? The rebellion in Yemen is continuing and president Salah is finding excuses to stay in power. But will he be able to do so? Or is the rebellion in Yemen led by Al Qaeda groups? That is very important. That will also determine the attitude of the western world as well. Would you like to address to the Yemeni rebellion Ambassador Aksoy?

Oktay Aksoy: It is not easy to predict how things will shape up in Yemen.  Yemen has in the past been a divided country, South and North Yemen. It was united into one singular country only in 1990 and President Saleh played an important role in achieving this. But, I guess there are elements of division among the people of the south and the north and there is also the Al Qaeda element, also there is the sectarian element (that is the Shiite and Sunni tensions) in the problems faced by the regime in the political upheavals in Yemen. Who influences the Yemeni tribes fighting with present government is not clear. It seems that, since Yemen is not close to Europe it attracts less attention. I guess nobody can really see the reasons of the uprising very clearly. So interference there would be more difficult. But I guess it was also one of the toughest people and lands of the Ottoman Empire. Turkish casualities there were numerous. Also in Libya, The Ottoman commanders Enver Pasha and Mustafa Kemal (Atatürk) had their first training of fighting the foreign invaders, organizing resistance  and mobilizing popular support.  It was the Italians at that time. They utilized their experiences later in Turkey during and after the First World War, one with success  (Mustafa Kemal) and the other (Enver Pasha) was a failure. They were probably frustrated in Libya because the Libyans were not sufficiently backing their efforts to fight the Italians at the time and when they came back Enver Pasha had a different idea of fighting which resulted in  ending the empire, Mustafa Kemal had another view of fighting and also another view of radically changing the country, he established the republic out of the ashes of the empire, adjusted the rules so that the country could adapt itself much easily into the global system.

Seyfi Tashan: That is very interesting remark. Then shall we move to Bahrain. Things seem to be under control in Bahrain. Of course many people found it very strange  how Saudi Arabia could enter the scene to restore peace and order. It has been explained that the Gulf Cooperation Council decision was the excuse, so it could be accepted. Now the latest news is that the both rebels and the Emir  have  accepted the mediation of Kuwait for finding a solution to the problem. Now ostensibly the rebels are asking for more freedom, resignation of the government and early elections, fare elections etc. Do you think they can achieve what they want Ambassador Arım?

Resat Arım: What we see in Bahrain, it has element of Sect, the Shias are not happy with Sunni government. Of course in the Gulf countries there is money and some of them have oil. In Bahrain, there is good business, bank and all that. The people do not feel the poverty really. In those countries the rebellions will not go far and it will settle at an acceptable point.

Seyfi Tashan: Then there comes the Shiite factor. I think we should discuss it little further because it is one way of Iran for infiltrating the Gulf Countries, particularly if Iran succeeds to develop nuclear weapons it will be extremely important and it certainly brings us to the early days of the Iranian revolution to spread the Shiite type of governmental system in the Gulf Countries as well. To try again is a problem, the ostensible reasons for all these uprisings are for more democracy, for more liberalization and for more liberty for the people. Now  Iran has a handicap. This Iranian structure is in conflict with what the people want. So Iranian influence, if there is a peaceful transition to democratic law and order, Iran’s influence in the Gulf and Mashrek areas substantially will be downgraded. So I believe here the potential and the desires of the Arab peoples run against what Iran inspires to bring to this part of the world. If we come to Syria, we can skip Jordan, I think, because in Jordan there is a very wise king and there is some sort of paraphernalia of democracy, that is political parties and there is a parliament and of course there their greater fear is Israel and that fear of Israel probably bring people together more; because sixty percent of the population of Jordan are Palestinian. So we can pass over I think Jordan and move to Syria which is very close to Turkey. The aim of this uprising is not absolutely clear for Turkey at the moment and what will happen, will have great impact. Particularly if a lot of people have to flee from Syria in either case if Beshar Essad is successful suppressing the uprising there would be many of the rebels who will seek refuge in Turkey. Also the other way round, if the rebels win, there will be quite a number of pro-government people who will try to seek refuge in Turkey. So either way Turkey may be subjected to an important refugee influx from Syria but if the matter can be peacefully handled in Syria and without any vehemence in fighting and if there is a smooth transition to a democratic order then things will be alright for Turkey, too. Because Turkey has great attention and great sensitivity to what is happening in Syria and obviously the call of the Turkish Prime Minister for rapid developments in taking measures to satisfy people are welcome. But there is one thing there again we have to discuss the Islamic situation “the Muslim Brotherhood”. Do you think it has a significant role in the current uprisings Ambassador Arım?

Resat Arım: Of course the Islamic movements in Syria, they have a background. They have a history like Hama, etc. And the country has Shia minority and a large Sunni population.

Seyfi Tashan: Can we call it Shiite or Alevite? Is it the same?

Resat Arım: Alevite is Shiite. Alevite minority in Syria is opposed, and has a very firm grip on the population with the police, etc. Administration strictly compelling with the population. Therefore it is very important for Turkey of course to see where all these developments would lead; the Turkish Prime Minister as you said has counseled moderation and also some reforms to Beshar Essad. Hopefully this would work.

Seyfi Tashan: Do you want to add something?

Oktay Aksoy: Of course one problem is that Beshar Essad when he came to power after his father Hafız passed away,  he came to power with many people’s hopes of bringing more liberal structures to the existing system. He was educated in the west and everyone was hoping that he could provide more influence of the western type of democracy, liberal economy and improvements to the regime but it seems that the existing structures are opposing any change there. Now with the uprisings they may be prepared to make the changes but how rapidly they can do it I don’t know. And the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria after the Hama uprising their backbone must have been broken. But the structure is there, so they can always benefit from the present situation.

Seyfi Tashan: Of course that previous discussion brings to mind how much the Islamic World can adapt to western life style, western democracy and western economic order. You will remember that as we were preparing in this Institute a draft for the constitution of Iraq, we came to a stamping point. It was proposed to say that laws adopted by the parliament shall in no way be against the principals of Islam, in other words sharia. On the other hand, it said that into the constitution they would bring all the paraphernalia of democracy and the human rights as understood in the West and gender equality and there are lots of people who are really wondering how much these western democratic values will be compatible with an Islamic state. Because Turkish model is different, in Turkey what we call Islam is between the consciousness of the people and the God. But also we have a government which is based on its religious affiliation. Yet the country is still a secular country and our judicial system is secular and our life style is secular life style. So, I wonder how much of this can infiltrate the other world?

Oktay Aksoy: I guess the problem is that the Arabs identify themselves also with Islam and to separating it is very difficult, unlike in Turkey. We have tried to individualize religion, make it a matter between individual and his God. But in the Arab World, it covers all societal activities, it is a part of their culture. So, it may be more difficult to think of a secular model for the Arab World. In the other Islamic countries, it may be easier to secularize their systems.

Seyfi Tashan:  Yes, but there are countries like Tunisia, they are trying to use soft Islamic model which has been called as a model for the Arab world. But I wonder how much it would be applicable to the developments that the Arab world very much demands. These demands are very secular ideas for development of education and the system to practically adapt to the modern world. With that note let’s end this discussion.