Presented at the conference "Harvard Black Sea Security Program"
SECURITY IN THE BLACK SEA

March 30, 2005

During the Cold War, Black Sea was an area of confrontation between NATO and the Warsaw Pact. Outside entrance to it was conducted on the terms of Montreaux Convention, which governed the passage of ships through the Turkish Straits. Little possibility for outside warships to enter the Black Sea existed. Trade between the two blocks was extremely limited. After the breakdown of the USSR, the possibility of cooperation among the littoral and adjacent states arose. However, historic and ethnic problems alongside the remnants of Russian hegemonic ambitions did not allow the countries to attain the benefits of the end of the Cold War as Central European countries could afford.

As many Central and Eastern European countries could change the pattern of their international relations from the realist model to the liberal one and achieve cooperation among themselves and within the overall European Integration process, similar efforts in the Black Sea region have remained in a limbo between realism and liberalism with the regional conflicts frozen, but still continuing internecine conflicts and international problems remaining unresolved.

After the breakdown of the Soviet Union attempts were made to develop regional cooperation paradigms. In this category, we could mention the Turkish initiative of the Black Economic Cooperation launched in 1992 which has now become a full fledged organization (BSEC) with a secretariat in Istanbul, a bank and a parliamentary assembly including 12 states as members i.e. all the littoral states in addition to Albania, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Greece as well as Serbia and Montenegro. We could also mention the GUAM Economic Initiative which was started in 1997 between Georgia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine and Moldova. Although its aim was to encourage trade among these countries, it was looked upon in Russia as an anti-Russian grouping. As the need for closer cooperation and interdependence increased, the Black Sea has become the hub of a wider region.

The importance of the Black Sea region has attracted a large number of observers to the BSEC from Europe and the Mediterranean. These are Israel, Egypt, Tunisia, Poland, Slovenia, Austria, Italy, France and Germany. The U.S. has recently applied also to become an observer. For the purpose of this paper, I would like to briefly review the conflicts unresolved in the region and then I will dwell on the so-called soft or lower intensity security threats in the region and how they are approached by the littoral states and organizations. However; in doing, so I will look at the issues from a Turkish perspective.

First of all, I would like to refer to the basic issues of security in the Black Sea considering the conditions of the post-Soviet era. On and in the Sea itself, there is little or no problem among the littoral states. The delimitation of the continental shelf between Russia and Turkey, as well as with the others has been successfully completed. Shipping of large quantities of oil through Turkish Straits has been made more secure through safety measures introduced in the Bosphorus even though these measures may not suffice with the potential increases in the oil-traffic. The most important danger is no-doubt possible terrorism in the Black Sea. I should note happily that the signing of a protocol among the Black Sea countries in Bucharest this year and the emphasis, the Russian and Turkish leaders have made on this issue in their discussions and declarations in Turkey during President Putin's visit to Ankara. For this purpose, Turkey and Russia also agree on the continuation without change of the Montreaux Convention leaving the security of the shipping lines to the Black Sea countries. BLACKSEAFOR has become a significant joint enterprise to add to security in the Black Sea itself. The fact that three littoral countries are members of NATO and are also candidates to EU membership and many others are included in the EU neighborhood policy should attract the attention of both NATO and ESDP to this region. The attention as far as Turkey is concerned should focus more on the development issues which is the aim of BSEC as well as on the resolution of the external and internal conflicts in the Balkans and the Caucasian regions. NATO and EU have made significant contributions to resolving or at least preventing armed-conflict in western Balkans. However, European organizations such as OSCE, entrusted with the task of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, have failed to achieve any concrete results. The security in the Southern Caucasus region could be helped substantially through more effective implementation of the PfP programs.

It can be said that the pillars of security in the Black Sea region are Russia and Turkey. Only they have the capable naval forces and large armies and substantial economic power. However, Russian security itself seems to be threatened, because of their inability to find a peaceful solution between the north and the south of the Caucasus that introduce serious security problems to multiethnic state of Georgia. Two principal disputes between the Russian Federation and Georgia i.e. Abkhazia and Ossetia still remain unresolved; and the control of the Pankisi Gorge remains a problem. The hope is that Georgia after the Rose Revolution may have eventually a stable democratic regime that could only be achieved with the support of its neighbors and NATO and the EU. The new President Saakashvili has made a good gesture for the solution of the South Ossetia problem. Unfortunately there is no such a gesture by the Republic of Armenia which continues to occupy about 20% of Azerbaijan territory, making about two million people homeless refugees. In addition, despite valid international treaties Armenia does not accept the legitimacy of its frontiers with Turkey. Armenian Diaspora in the US and Europe, while on the one hand demanding Turkey to establish diplomatic relations with Armenia, they call on Turkey to accept guilt for the events which caused loss of Ottoman lives during the First World War during which Armenians fought against the Ottomans in their aspiration to carve an Armenian state out of Ottoman territories. In this respect history is clear: Overwhelming majority of Armenian losses like those of other Ottoman losses were caused by conditions of war, hunger caused by the effective Blockade of Turkey by Allied warships, epidemics, lack of law and order. It is not possible for the Turks of today who are aware of the facts of history, accept guilt on behalf of their ancestors, a guilt which we know, they did not commit.

The pollution problem in the Black Sea is one of the major problems of this basin calling for earlier attention of the littoral states and international organizations. It also requires great effort by the riparian countries of the Danube and greater control on the Rivers flowing into the Black Sea by Ukraine, Russia and Turkey. The high volume of tanker traffic poses a great risk for the Black Sea itself, which is almost totally enclosed. This danger is extremely great and may cause devastation in the Turkish Straits. The construction of Baku-Ceyhan pipeline will be of some help to reduce the growth of tanker traffic in the Black Sea, which the Romans called the "sinister sea" (Mare Sinistrum). As reliance on Central Asian oil increases in Europe, we must find a way of reducing the dangers to the Black Sea resulting from tanker traffic. I believe we need more pipelines to connect Caspian region to the Mediterranean if we are to consider saving the total destruction of the Black Sea of which over 80% is already dead.

To conclude I must refer to two important issues as they relate to the security in and around the Black Sea.

One of them is the far reaching accord between Turkey and Russia on regional and wider issues contained the Declaration issued by President Sezer and President Putin on December 6, 2005. Not only there is a general consensus of view on increasing the efficiency of UN and the improvement of the organization but they also support UN, OSCE, Council of Europe and other international organizations for ensuring international security and fighting against all types of terrorism, current risks and threats.
They also underlined the importance of strengthening a comprehensive security architecture in Europe on the path to developing a common European Space. In this declaration Turkey and Russia also underlined their international obligations arising out of the Montreux Convention and promised to continue consultation to develop their maritime relations.

Both states confirmed their decision to further increase the efficiency of the BSEC, which the two countries declare has already rendered important contribution to economic cooperation, stability and security in the region.
The importance of the Declaration probably lies the fact that it confirms the determination of both countries to increase their cooperation in the entire Eurasian space.