The visit of Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem to Iran is taking place at a crucial time. The main reason for this is that Iran is increasingly getting involved in regional developments and perceived by the European countries as a future ally.

The reform process in Iran is supported mostly by the European governments which has caused great conflict between the EU and the United States on the question of economic sanctions imposed on Iran, Iraq, Libya and Sudan during the 90's. 

No doubt, the new American administration will also revise its policy regarding Iran which creates a better international environment for Iran now. As for Turkey, a new momentum has begun to revise its policy also. Ismail Cem's visit is to include an additional issue; the so called Armenian genocide issue. Iran is second to Russia in conducting very close relations with Armenia in every sense, from politico-military relations to economic relations. Armenia's escape is also Iran and some Armenian diplomats told us in international conferences why they are not dependent on Turkey for good neighborly relations; it's because there is an alternative: Iran. 

Iran has a small but very effective Armenian population and lobby there. Iran has been supporting the independence of Armenia since 1991. In the early 90's the former President, Abulfayz Elçibey, used rhetoric and a policy aimed at Russia and Iran; in particular Iran, even under Khomeni they followed Azarbaijan with great concern because Iran has around 17 million Azeri in its population. This policy and rhetoric made Iran and Armenia which occopies 25 percent of the Azeri lands and created nearly 1 million refugess in Nagorno- Karabag, a natural ally. 

Azarbaijan who on the other hand is a close ally of Turkey since the very beginning makes the situation in the Caucasia interesting but also very fragile. Azeri President Aliyev is most careful in its policy towards Iran concerning the formulation; but is also concerned on the Islamic radicalism like Usbekistan and other Central Asian Republics as well as Turkey, where there is a general view that Iran is behind such movements. This perception will continue as long as Iran is not a fully opened society and does not realize reforms. 

Foreign minister Ismail Cem will bring to the forefront the so called Armenian issue which is a priority in both countries relations in the political field as well as the increasing economic realtions and regional issues of Northern Iraq. Iranian statements in the last few weeks have created great concern in Turkey with regards to the Armenian issue and any political acceptance of the Iranian side in this issue, which could break down many relations. Therefore, it is not expected that the Iranian Parliament will meet such a decision soon but it remains to be a thorny issue in both countries relations. Ismail Cem's visit is also important from the standpoint that Turkey has increasingly taken Iran as a regional pivotal state which has created a 'confident atmosphere' in the region; whereas just three years ago, during the Erbakan period, the relations reached a point where both sides accused each other of being the source of their problems and diplomatic relations were full of crisis: like the 'Jerusalem Night'' celebrations organized by Bekir Yildiz, the major of Sincan, near Ankara, which is seen as a corner stone on the way to the 'post modern coup de état" by the military in February 1997. Iran's ambassador in Ankara was expelled immediately and a politico-diplomatic crisis became inevitable. Also, the Iranian policy in Northern Iraq was always suspicioned by Turkey despite the fact that there are regular consultations on this issue. 

How far Iran and Turkey can follow a joint policy is an unanswered question. Iran is aware of its regional strength and will follow a "solo going" policy and try to increase its influence there with the intention to "balance" the Turkish position. Then, Iran is still not happy with the ever closer Turkey and United States relations. This why Iran will recevie further Russian military equipment and technologie in the future. Iran's Russian policy deserves much attention and the Russian, Iranian and Armenian relations are no doubt, "not directed at anybody" as they say offically but remains a very interesting "cultural constellation of the Orthodox and Armenian Churhes with Iranian Shiite Islam!! 

Ismail Cem's convincing argumentation and style is on examination! As Iran is well known for its rich diplomacy and real policy in the world and it, which was not always easy with Iran. However, there will be a more "common understanding" for now because Iran does not want Turkey "angry" over a recognition of the so called Armenian Genozide. It is the priority of Cem's visit to prevent it. In the European countries, it will be difficult to stop it because of "political differences" on this issue, but at least in the Iranian case, Turkey or better Cem can win a small battle there. The Armenian diaspora declared war but one should not forget, the war will be won by winning the battles