Turkey's internal as well as external relations are again getting a complicating structure, and once again pessimism for the country's future has replaced optimism. For an observer it is interesting but also confusing how Turkey can change its position from one day to the next on certain issues while on other issues can stand firm. This is the magic of this country that makes it so peculiar and interesting. 

In foreign relations, Turkey remained firm on the issues such as the Cyprus and Aegean questions as well as the European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP). No doubt, the decision by Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) President Rauf Denktas to leave the indirect negotiations under the United Nations was a hard decision for both sides with great consequences. 

President Denktas declared his decision after he met with the National Security Council (MGK) in Ankara when he explained his reasons for his decision. In his view, the indirect negotiations would lead nowhere, and the European Union is determined to accept the southern part of Cyprus into the EU as a full member leaving the Turks on the island under the rain. Last Friday, he was also able to convince the KKTC Parliament that the EU is doing a great injustice to the Turks of the north, and that this side-taking by the EU cannot be accepted. Actually, this position is not new, but now it is confirmed politically. And this is what matters now. 

When Prime Minister Ecevit was in Nice for the summit, the Greek and Southern Cypriot sides were victorious while Turkey was left out of the union for another 10 years. The southern part of Cyprus will be among the first wave of the enlargement within a few years. It means, at least on the summit declaration, that the Southern Cyprus accession is confirmed. 

Is it a success for Greek politics? Time will tell. The Aegean question poses another problem and remains unresolved for the time being. Still, Greece as well as Southern Cyprus consider it a victory. After Southern Cyprus becomes a full member, then Greece and Southern Cyprus will start to cry, as is to be expected, that Turkey occupies EU land and borders. It is not a joke that the first crisis for the EU army to manage, if there will be one, will be with Turkey! Who knows! 

Therefore, Turkey's veto, despite the personal call by U. S. President Clinton, that Turkey is not ready to give NATO capabilities for the military operations of the EU created a new situation. Then, the EU expectation was that Turkey would in the end accept that she is not in the decision-making mechanisms of the ESDP, but rather would be in the decision-shaping mechanisms. However, last Friday it was seen that it has not met Turkish expectations. 

In several former articles related to this topic, we expressed the view that for the EU, it should be clear that without a resolution of Turkey's status, Europe's security cannot be sufficiently planned. Post-Cold War European security is marked by uncertainty which requires considering the concept of security in its entirety. At least, until the EU reaches such a conclusion, Turkey's concern will be legitimate and justifiable. 

Turkey's decision proves that this concern still continues. But what now? The same Turkey that was supporting NATO enlargement is now using her veto right. But what will Turkey's position be in the 2002 Washington summit concerning the further enlargement of NATO with the signatory states (nine Central and Eastern European Countries) of the May 2000 Vilnius Declaration? Is it toward a new confrontation with Europe that Turkey seems to be heading? 

After the Nice Summit, the Euro-sceptics and anti-EU forces gained great strength. No doubt about it. But, at the same time, preparation of the National Program is still going on. Until 2010 Turkey will not be among the 27 counties that will be shaping the new Europe. However, the Nice Summit proved again that Germany, France, Great Britain and Italy will be the most decisive powers for the years to come. In particular Germany's position, as every expert agrees on, became the strongest ever. This Europe will become no doubt a strong power center in global politics without Turkey for the next 10 years. 

Zbigniew Brzezinski was proposing in his latest article titled "Living with a New Europe" in National Interest, Summer 2000, that there should be a Europe 27 plus Turkey in the midterm planning. He criticizes Europeans for considering countries, such as Turkey, which are NATO members but not in the EU, as "Trojan horses." He believes that "Europe will continue to need America to be truly secure." 

Since George W. Bush will be the new U.S. president and the former head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Colin Powell, the new secretary of state and possibly Condolizza Rice, the new national security adviser, the question remains how far the new U.S. administration will consider the ESDP viable and not a rival. This, despite the fact that the ESDP cannot replace NATO and Europe is too distant to be a rival for the U.S. both in the military as well as in the economic sense. 

Domestically speaking, Turkey needs to realize the reforms that are necessary for economic and internal stability. At the present time, there is confusion and it seems everybody is against everybody else. The coalition government has to expect much harder times in the coming months despite the fact that there is no strong opposition. The government's problem is that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program makes people's life very hard; the economy suffers and privatization did not bring about the expected economic dynamics. The recent demonstrations from police to student, as well as trade unions, show how the country is again falling into pessimism. This is not a good sign for the country. 

When fighting in Parliament among Parliament members starts again as it has in recent days, memories from the '70s become fresh. It is like "back to the future." However, Turkey has passed a very difficult period again, and at the end of the year the tendency is to become more sceptical and pessimistic, rather than to be optimistic. It was so different one year ago after the Helsinki Summit. It is the same coalition government and the same nation. One could only call the few days before the first year of the millennium: Quo Vadis Turkey?