On Tuesday evening on Turkish Radio and Television Corporation (TRT)-1 a weekly program with the title "Avrupa Birligi" EU Ambassador Volkan Vural was explaining Turkey's "National Program" for EU membership to the Turkish public and how important this monumental work of more than 1,500 pages is for Turkey's integration into the European Union. Ambassador Vural was not convincing about what he was saying; he knows very well that without political will, this National Program is meaningless. 

On that day the "Summit of the leaders" ended without reaching any concrete solution and the term "zamana yaymak" (wait and see what happens) was the key phrase of the summit. Translated into political language, it means "we are not serious about it." Ambassador Vural is indeed in a very delicate position now. As Secretary-General of the EU, responsible for EU integration, his job will get much tougher than before. 

Does Turkey really want it? This became a cardinal question again in this country. During the seminar on the EU, European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) and NATO in Istanbul last week, the message by Gen. Nahit Senogul was very clear -- Turkey would prefer to remain a unitary state and not join the EU if it would lead to the division of the Turkish state. Indeed, all week the question of whether Turkey would be divided or not was discussed. This fear of division will dominate the intellectual atmosphere in Turkey much longer and the National Program will not be realized so easily, if it is realized at all. 

In Turkish foreign policy as well as in domestic policy the most difficult period since the Gulf War has started and everybody in Turkey is concerned about the future of the country. Domestic discussions about whether the military intervention on February 28, 1997 was a "post-modern coup" or not show once again that Turkey is running like the Circle Line in the London underground -- always in a circle and not coming one inch closer. 

It is a real pity for Turkey that this inward-looking tendency is getting stronger and stronger. The militarization of Turkish domestic and foreign policies is not the reason but the consequence of what has happened here in this country in the last several years. Even President Sezer's outcry when the general amnesty was to be issued did not help, and the whole country fell into more pessimism because the rule of law does not exist anymore. At least this is the view of the man of the street. 

Wolfgang Koydl, until December 2000 a reporter for the German Daily Suddeutsche Zeitung in Istanbul, has written an article with the title "Die grosse Luge der Kinder Ataturks" (The great lie of Ataturk's children) in which he argues why Turkey will never become a member of the EU. Not all his arguments are right, but there are some points that deserve to be mentioned. Indeed, Turkish politics is always based on slogans, not on deeds. 

In the Nice Summit both sides appear victorious, but nobody is a real winner. Even Athens was pleased with the result. But, no doubt, according to Koydl, both sides lied to each other. 

Last year in every EU interview, Foreign Minister Cem was stressing that Turkey would start the membership negotiations in the year 2004. Since the Nice Summit, such arguments will not be heard by him. He is too busy now searching for "new horizons" in Libya, Sudan, etc.! At times when he is requested to say something about EU relations, he is away. So, the military is saying whether Turkey is interested in the EU or not! The real problem is that Turkey has to digest certain bitter pills, as Spain and Portugal did in the past or all the Central and Eastern European countries have done since 1990. But Turkey seems not to be ready to do this, and this is also a choice. Ask the Spanish politicians how they suffered under British terms and expectations before they joined the EU. 

Turkey is, as Koydl argues, not ready for Europe; Turkey will in the long run be an "alien" in the EU. Being "alien" will continue as recent developments have proved. All the discussions about religious differences to cultural questions are actually irrelevant. Turkey's problem, according to the general EU view, is that Turkey is far from having rule of law, and that the rules and laws in Turkey are not applied to EU standards. To accept the EU laws does not mean anything if they are not applied correctly. 

From traffic to university issues 
Who can explain the last general amnesty or the student amnesty to the EU judges and university professors? How can a professor argue with a colleague from Finland or Great Britain that Parliament is above academic freedom? 

Unfortunately, copying rules and laws does not help to improve the situation in the country. Sometimes, the disappointment is so great that it translates itself into pessimism. Indeed, Turkey is different because commitment is lacking. As a result Turkish society and politics will be more aggressive. Not toward foreign countries, but rather toward itself! Look at the numbers of crimes and killings. In the last 10 years, more than 100,000 people have lost their lives in traffic accidents and more than $10 billion has been paid for damages. Turkish society is losing its well-known tolerance and is getting psychologically ill. From education to foreign policy, Turkey does not have a clear vision. To illustrate it simply, the Turkish society is now like a headless chicken running from one corner to another. 

The solution is there, but political will does not exist. Turkey is opposed to transformation and change, contrary to the '80s. Now, the Armenian diaspora's success is on the table, and many other EU states will follow. Turkey will show some reactions and some may be effective, but since Turkey does not have clear concepts for certain policies, the situation will worsen. 

An inward looking aggressive nationalism is emerging and there is no policy in sight to prevent this. Because of this domestic pessimism important foreign policy issues will become less and less urgent for Turkey. There is political stability as Prime Minister Ecevit says, but not "social stability." It has a deep crack and gets worse and worse. Who is lying to whom? The EU to Turkey or Turkey to herself. This is an open question and everyone has to answer for himself. Now is the time for deeds -- not for words anymore.