The coalition government will have been in power three years next week, and this is the longest period for any government in the last 15 years in terms of government stability.

Whether there will be early elections or not this year, it does not matter anymore. Then, Turkey will have to live with another coalition government after the elections because no political party will receive votes for an absolute majority in Parliament. This is a fact of Turkish political culture and life now. All the opinion polls show that there are only three parties which can pass the 10 percent threshold for the elections, though there are more than 50 political parties at the moment. It is the first time in Turkish political history that such a ‘unity in diversity’’ is the case and it looks like the Central and Eastern European countries with Russia in the early 90s with so many political parties running in the elections. For Turks, however, this is a meaningless competition and the ‘inflation of political parties’’ is not healthy for Turkish democracy.

In Turkey, the center left and center right of the political parties are so partitioned and became ineffective, some ultra right and ultra left parties create more sounds within the ‘early election chorus’’ than the bigger political parties.

In particular these ‘little and tiny parties’’ are without any exception anti-EU parties, and this is also a shift in political thinking, whereas the coalition parties and some other big parties are for the EU. Indeed, the year 2002 is very important in Turco-EU relations, and this coalition government needs to finish the process of reforms and get a date for full membership negotiations.

Prime Minister Ecevit’s performance in this respect was great and Deputy Prime Minister Mesut Yılmaz is spending his political energy more than ever for EU membership. The other Deputy Prime Minister Bahçeli is ‘visiting Europe’’ but meeting only ‘Turks’’ in European countries but not European politicians!! His rhetoric is hard when he speaks in Europe, particularly on subjects like the death penalty and human rights issues but very cooperative in the coalition leaders’ meetings with Ecevit and Yılmaz. For any political observer, inside or outside, it is not easy to comprehend what actually this coalition governments ultimately want to do. The problem is that some issues will be exploited for domestic politics and some for external politics.

The ‘strongest’ minister ever in the cabinet beside the leaders, Mr. Kemal Derviş seems to be more willing, than many assume, for the continuation of the coalition government and his recent statements for an early election actually are a good signal to prove to the outside world that Turkey has already passed the most dangerous stage of the worst economic crisis ever in the modern history of Turkey. Indeed, early elections would not mean the end of the world but this seems to be very difficult for some technical reasons. One of them is that the economic program, promised to the IMF, has to be completed.

For the second one, Prime Minister Ecevit still wants to accomplish his political reform process on the way to the EU membership, confessing his mistake from the late 70s when he suspended then Turkish-EC relations.

The third one is that economic improvements will be effective until the end of the year and for the final one, there is no sign of any coalition which can work in such ‘harmony’’ as the existing one. It is a coalition like a catholic marriage. No separation until the end!!!

It is also not timely not to go to elections because of foreign policy issues like Cyprus, where a certain momentum has been reached. The visit of UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to the island was necessary and motivating for both sides to reach an acceptable solution by the end of the year. Actually, a solution is not so far away and one should keep the fingers crossed that this warm atmosphere will not disappear. Mr. Denktaş is now closer to a solution and Mr. Klerides should also take some steps forward. The EU until now has been more effective then expected. Maybe it will be the second EU success after Montenegro.

Foreign Minister İsmail Cem is also the one with great interest in the continuation of the coalition government. He is aware that this year is very crucial for Turkey and any governmental instability would harm certain processes which he started.

Indeed, Turkey is already in an atmosphere for early elections and in every coffee house in Turkey, where politics will be shaped, the numerical discussion is not anymore about the economic crisis but early elections. Turkey from this point of view, indeed, has become a big chorus for early elections although it will be not the case this year. In 2003, everyone should be prepared for the elections as they were in 1946. Is democracy also not anything other than the exercise of democratic elections?