Turkey's artificial optimism is building with great speed, and it seems it will last longer than many anticipate. Since the arrival of the "imported savior of Turkey's future," Kemal Dervis has been the main subject of economic and political discussions. Dervis has begun to realize he is in "political hell," or as the headline of the Turkish Daily News on Saturday (March 24) read "Dervis as if on 'Orient Express'." 

Indeed, recent statements by certain politicians among the coalition government showed again that there is still no consensus on Dervis, and all of the "nice words of the Turkish politicians," concerning the doings and future intentions of Dervis, are actually the biggest concern for their personal political survival. Dervis, in other words, destroyed all the expectations of the politicians, who believe "there is no viable alternative to this coalition government." But alone, Dervis is an alternative himself, and the real political battle will start when he returns from the United States. 

Dervis has become the most discussed and supported political personality since the death of Turgut Ozal, who totally changed Turkish society and therefore started losing the battle "against the old politicians" when those politicians had the opportunity to come back to politics after 1987. There are some similarities between Ozal and Dervis because both are believed to have been sent by America with a specific mission to change the country's face. If one carefully reads the statements of Dervis, it will be seen that he uses the words "my mission in Turkey" very often. The political establishment in this country does not like the word "mission" or "vision," because the most important characteristic of the existing coalition government is that it has neither a "mission" or a "vision". This is why Dervis does not fit into the general picture and indeed why he is on the "Orient Express." 

The economic calamity is still continuing and the man on the street does not have any hope or reason for optimism anymore. The subsequent waves of price increases, from oil to telephones, in the last 4 weeks have made the country like a dead body where nothing moves in an economic sense. Unemployment reached the highest point in 20 years, and for the first time one of the most crucial veins of the Turkish economy, the agriculture sector, is losing blood, and the peasants are angrier with the government than the workers the state employs. 

Statements were made later on by the Agriculture Minister Husnu Gokalp that Ecevit is responsible for the economic calamity and now another catastrophe in the person of Dervis has arrived and it will be the end of economy. Actually, there are many necessary political sacrifices to be made, but nobody is ready to do this. Deputy Prime Minister Devlet Bahceli said last week that "to make political sacrifices would not help solve the country's problems, if this would be a good solution than the Ottoman Empire would be demised." Bahceli's example is wrong because we are not talking about the Ottoman Empire, but rather the future of the democratic Turkish Republic, and political succession and responsibility is the primacy of democracies. The urgent need is that Turkish politicians introduce this also into the political system. Otherwise, they do more harm to Turkish democracy than they assume. But it is not only Bahceli's problem. This covers the whole political class mentality of Turkey's party system. 

The very well educated Turkish youth are not interested in living in this country anymore. This danger is growing. Yesterday's SABAH Daily contained the results of a survey among university students, on what they will do after graduation. Most of them will leave Turkey and go abroad. The "brain drain" of the '70s is repeating itself in another form. The youth are not leaving Turkey because of an ideologically motivated internal war, but rather they do not see any optimism in the country's economic or political future. 

A scientific research, supported by Konrad Adenauer Foundation, two years ago showed that young people have no hope for the country's future, and 60 percent of them want to live abroad because Turkey does not offer the life standards and political freedom that Western countries have. This survey accurately reflected the real expectations of the Turkish youth, which have been always neglected by the political parties. If the youth are so disillusioned with their country, as the survey shows, what else can be done, except to change the existing deficits from education right through to the political structure? The first mission of Kemal Dervis should be to stop the exodus of young skilled educated Turks. Will he be successful? The question is open. 

Artificial optimism built up because Turkey's National Program for EU membership is also much more than satisfactory. The wording can be discussed but the changes which are foreseen in the National Program can not be implemented because there is no political will for this. Certainly, it is not like the Tanzimat reforms, but if Turkey does not give enough importance to it it will be another failure and no doubt, EU candidate status is not forever, as many statements have been made to the effect that it isn't. Therefore, the National Program must be implemented at any cost otherwise the gap between Turkey and the EU will become bigger and bigger. 

Today, Turkey is economically in a deadlock. Dervis visit to Europe and the United States is similar to when in 1979 Turgut Ozal went to Europe to get help for the economy, while then Prime Minister Suleyman Demirel was saying that Turkey needs even "70 cents" to cure the economy. No doubt, in the end Dervis will find some financial help but of course not without any political or economic price. The Turkish people will live for a while on the artificial optimism created by Dervis. Dervis now has a real mission to enter into politics and become a real political alternative to the existing political parties. If he does not, then not only he himself but the whole country will have the same feeling we are on the "Orient Express." Can Dervis escape this? It is up to him. But it seems that there is no return for him. This is the "Turkish reality" -- ending the artificial optimism and turning it real optimism. The Dervis period in Turkish politics started when he arrived in Ankara last month. "Welcome back to the future Mr. Dervis."