The first round of presidential elections in France did actually bring the expected results. In the last few years there was an increasing tendency in European radicalism and conservative political parties, though Europe is also experiencing the division of leftist and rightist political parties, and this tendency is still lasting one. Le Pen is not a mistake of French history but rather the continuation of it. Many people in Turkey think that France has always been left-oriented which is a major mistake. France has been and is one of the engines of the European Union process together with Germany, and certainly it is a big blow for France from the international public opinion point of view. Then, as a democratic state, France should also respect Le Pen as a political reality like it was the case in Austria few years ago when Jörg Haider was elected by the free will of the Austrian people. France was the first country at that time which forced the EU to impose economic sanctions on Austria, if Jörg Haider from the FPÖ (Freie Politische Partei Österreichs) would be part of the coalition government. It must be well remembered that at the time how unhappy the Austrians were with this ''political crusade'' organized by France. It was successful at the end, and Austrians felt badly treated by the EU. Three years later France has realized that it can be also face a similarity. Yes, President Chirac will be elected in the May 5the elections and Le Pen will be out of the race, but the demonstrations in Paris two days ago, in which 200,000 people demonstrated against him, is also a sign that even France can not tolerate radical movements. From this point of view France got also his lecture and it would appear less as a ''teacher'' for the other countries in case of democracy. France will be now more in focus because also in Germany there will be elections in September. The German conservatives are expected to win elections, if the German Social Democrats do not get the economy onto the right track. As the last week elections in Magdeburg showed that the Social Democrats were facing real challenges and they lost 16 percent of their previous votes, even coming in behind the Communist Party (PDS). It seems that this year will not be good for Social Democrats in Europe. In France the Socialist will support President Chirac, and in Germany Free Democrats will be probably be the coalition partner of the Christian Democrats after the September elections, if nothing unexpected happens.

This situation will also have some negative implications on the European enlargement process. In the candidate countries there is also an increasing tendency for anti-EU views among the political parties and the latest elections in Hungary are a proof for this. But also, the German and Czech Republic quarrel over the Sudeten Germans who were sent to Germany just after World War II, will be a major problem between two countries if the CDU-CSU Bundeskanzler candidate Edmund Stoiber were to win the elections. German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder cancelled his visit to Prague in reaction against this, but Stoiber would take much harscher political measures against Prague. Prague has also some conflicts with Austria and this is another reason for some Czech political parties to force anti-EU policies.

Since Sept. 11, the candidate countries are forcing the EU to speed up the enlargement process whereas Brussels insists on the same speed and this is a problem. What will happen in th NATO enlargement process this year, in particular during the Prague summit in November? Will Bulgaria and Rumania will be left out? What is the actual status of ESDP? How will the EU respond to the new security environment after Sept. 11? There are many questions which need to be answered. But, what is more relevant at the moment is where is Europe heading. It is expected that EU countries will have more conservative political parties in coming years, and this will change the total political atmosphere in Europe, and for some EU candidate countries it will be not easy.

Turkey is one of the countries which will have more problems than many expect. Any shift in the political landscape from a Social Democrat dominated EU to a Conservative dominated EU would make Turkey's position difficult, and it will be like this sooner or later. Today, though Turkey is a candidate country, the euphoria from the Helsinki suumit is not there any longer, and neither the EU nor Turkey now seem to be honest with each other. The policy from both sides is now ''how to manage each other's policy'' also back to square one again. The recent discussions and publications from both sides prove it very well, and Turkey's political future is certainly with the EU but not within the EU as many experts of the EU stress again and again in recent weeks.

Until the end of the year the EU has to give Turkey a concrete date for full membership negotiations. If it is not the case, then the anti-EU forces will get stronger in Turkey. This is not an "ultimatum"' per se, but a political necessity if the EU wants to prove its sincerety. Actually, the customs union with the EU is considered now by many Turkish experts as a wrong decision and the EU is still taking the most advantage of it.

This coalition government is indeed very successful in bringing the laws and reforms to the constitution. However, there many laws were passed without any serious debate in Parliament and this is not a good sign for future developments. Therefore, the EU has to recognize this work and has to define the dates for membership talks otherwise the coalition government will have certain difficulties in the next elections. Though there is still time for elections in Turkey, they have already started in the minds of the people. Once again, if the EU does not give any dates for membership talks, then the next elections slogans are clear -- No to the EU! Let's see whether it will be so or not.