Year-End Notes For 2007
As this volumes covers the entire year we have chosen to summarize Turkey’s foreign policy status at the end of the year in respect to major areas that has occupied Turkey during the current year. These areas principally are the Middle East, European Union and relations with such major powers as the United States, Russia and China.
Turkey-EU: 2007
The year 2007 did not begin auspiciously for Turkey-EU relations. Only a few days before the year began EU suspended negotiations on 8 chapters as punishment for Turkey’s refusal to open its ports and airports to Greek-Cypriot vessels as part of the extension of the Customs Union to ten new members of the EU. It did not accept the Turkish argument that Turkey would do so when the EU as it promised to do so earlier, lifted the isolation imposed on Northern Cyprus. The EU’s decision for such a partial suspension of negotiations was surprising because of several reasons:
First of all, the Negotiations Framework adopted by EU Council provided that negotiations could be suspended only if there was a gross violation of human rights in Turkey. The suspension of negotiations on 8 chapters out of thirty-five, is one of them as it contradicted what was agreed before. The rejection of the Turkish proposal to open its ports in return to the lifting of the isolation imposed on Northern Cyprus had no legitimate basis, except pursuing Greek Cypriot objective forcing Turkey to recognize the Greek Government in Cyprus as the Government of Cyprus since that government did not exercise sovereignty all over the island and rejected to unite with the Northern part of Cyprus as part of a plan approved by UN and worked out together with EU. While Greek Cypriots have been rejecting to normalize their relations with their northern neighbours, EU is paradoxically asking Turkey to normalize its relations with Cypriot Greeks. EU also sees the resolution of the Cyprus question between the two communities on an equal footing as set by UN, but the solution has been jeopardized by EU’s favoring of one Community to the disadvantage of the other. As a new development one may indicate a change of attitude in the Security Council. The Secretary General of UN in his report on Cyprus dated December 3rd, which was welcomed by the Security Council, declared “…the objective should be to engender greater economic and social parity between the sides by further promoting the development of the Turkish Cypriot Community, so that reunification of the island may occur in as seamless a manner as possible. The maintenance of economic, social, cultural, sporting or similar ties or contacts does not amount to recognition. On the contrary, it will benefit all Cypriots by building trust, creating a more even playing field and thus greatly contributing to the unification of the island. It is therefore important for all actors concerned to reframe the debate and their actions with a view to achieving this crucial objective…” If guided by this new development EU can open up Northern Cyprus to all kinds of contacts than it should be possible for Turkey to fulfill its promise to open its ports to Greek vessels carrying goods from Cyprus. This would end a sour stage in the negotiations.
Ever since EU decided to begin accession negotiations with Turkey in 2004, words and arguments prevalent in several European countries’ public opinions against Turkey’s eventual membership became a significant factor in the negative votes on the referenda on Constitutional Treaty in France and the Netherlands. The Turkish issue was the subject of the quixotic quest of the new French President Mr. Sarkozy, and Mrs. Merkel maintained her party’s “special membership” call for Turkey while at the same time stating that she would stick in case of Turkey to the dictum of pacta sunt servanda. So far the Commission has stuck to its position with respect to Turkey’s accession process. Nevertheless, its progress reports, mostly justified on the need for greater and faster institutional, legislative and human rights reforms, contain a number of political requirements reflecting the special interests of some EU members that could hardly be fulfilled by Turkey. Among these one can mention special demands of the Greek Orthodox Church in Turkey that far surpass the size of their flock in Turkey. The reciprocal media campaigns both in several EU countries and in Turkey greatly hurt mutual feelings regarding Turkey’s accession process. The bold move by the French to resist the opening of five more chapters that, if concluded satisfactorily would pave the way for Turkey’s accession and their insistence to remove any reference to Turkey’s eventual membership in EU documents are the results of these campaigns. As a reaction to these unwelcome noises the support for joining EU in the Turkish public opinion has fallen down from 63% in 2005 to 49 % in 2007. The corresponding percentages in EU countries are much lower. In 2007 the legislative harmonization efforts in Turkey seem to have slowed down may be because of elections in the country; yet, the Government insists that these reforms will continue in an accelerated manner. The fulfillment of this promise will not only bring Turkey closer to EU standards but it should be a necessary outcome of the changing face of Turkey from an agricultural country into a highly developed modern, secular democracy. The desire for these harmonization with European standards are supported by a very large majority of the Turkish people.
No timeframe have been defined in Turkey’s accession process and the speed of the accession process in terms of chapters being negotiated. More than two years have elapsed since the beginning of accession negotiations, only one chapter has been opened and closed and three of them were opened in 2006 and two more in December 2007. If the rest of the negotiation process continues in a similar pace the negotiations for the rest of 28 chapters may take another 14-16 years more provided that these do not face a la carte vetoes. Furthermore, it is doubtful whether EU will include provisions for Turkey’s accession budget for 2013-2020 period. EU’s absorption capacity is another undefined handicap put before Turkey’s accession.
All these foreseen and undefined difficulties brings an almost Odysseic feature to Turkey’s road to EU.
Societies in Europe are not static and every aspect of social, political, economic life in modern societies is subject to dynamic transformation because of national and international conditions, fashions and scientific and technological progress in the world. This transformation may be slow or rapid depending on the country’s need and opportunities available. These changes may happen more slowly in developed conservative countries with low population growths. But, this should be very rapid in a developing country like Turkey and it is happening that way.
All EU countries and Turkey have a strong conviction that under every circumstance Turkey and Europe must be firmly bound to each other. Even the opponents of Turkey’s eventual membership agree on this geographic, economic, strategic, social and political necessity. In view of this necessity why should we make things difficult and tie fulfillment of the necessity to the completion of the negotiations? One way that might be suggested is to use and enlarge the institutions created by the Association agreement. A natural corollary of such an approach would be to provide seats for Turkish representatives in EU committees and institutions either as full members or as observers so that the changes in EU acquis could be reflected in Turkey and Turkey-EU relations in a continuous process of approximation. So that EU and Turkey may continue the accession negotiations, while at the same time they may remain bound together in a comprehensive way, as it has been the case since the end of World War II in the field of security.
Conclusion:
Progress in Turkey-EU relations has not been conspicuous in terms of public opinion attitudes and political level, while the human contacts, trade, investments and social cultural issues have shown remarkable development in Turkey-EU relations. We have to find ways and means in 2008 to reflect this real progress in our accession process as well.
Seyfi TaþhanTurkey and the Major Powers in 2007
2007 has been a year when the major powers had the occasion of assessing once again the power and the potential of Turkey. Turkey is a secular country, trying to develop its economy at a rapid pace and looking forward to having good relations all around. Turkey strictly adheres to the principles of the United Nations; sanctity of the treaties, territorial integrity of countries,etc..There are certain questions of importance for Turkey. One of them is the terrorist organization located in the North of Iraq which caused so much suffering to the Turkish people. The other is the isolation imposed on the Turkish Cypriots. The Turkish public is expecting that these two problems be resolved according to the principles of the United Nations.Turkish-American relations.
Turkey-US relations faced difficulties in 2007 But,the positions taken by Turkey on every instance has shown that Turkey’s attitude was always related to principles and was not opportunistic. That facilitated the solution of the problems.
The main point of discord was related to the danger posed to Turkey by terrorist attacks coming from the North of Iraq. Turkey’s position on Iraq being well known since 2003 and the efforts deployed by Turkish diplomacy in Iraq and among the neighbors of Iraq with a view to securing a stable Iraq being appreciated by all concerned , it was only natural that the meeting of the Turkish Prime Minister with the US President would produce the result awaited so eagerly by the Turkish public, That the US President would consider the PKK terrorist organization also as a threat against the US was certainly something to be expected from a longtime ally. It was good that the last months of 2007 would help create a much better atmosphere in the relationship of the two countries. If we turn our eyes to the past and consider the several mishaps that came to afflict relations between Turkey and the United States, we can not escape the impression that it was rather the extraneous factors, like the Armenians or the Greeks living in several districts of the US that played the major part. The Armenian question came to the fore again in 2007 with the support they found in the Congress. It could not go very far, however, when the Congress had also to take the US national interest into account. There is no denial that the world is changing. But, we all are in need of mutual trust and respect for the interests of the other. Those basic elements are all the more important in today’s world when terror became the primary threat we have to deal with.
Turkish-Russian relations
Following the end of the Cold War, Turkish-Russian relations were freed from their bloc-to-bloc character and the two countries entered into a neighbor-to-neighbor relationship. We can say that 2007 on the whole was a good year as far as this relationship is concerned. Of course, the international conjuncture has a bearing on relations. All the same, neighbors should always be careful to exclude as much as possible the external influences. This is very true for Turkey and Russia, since in their neighborhood are located many countries which gained independence following the demise of the Soviet Union. Turkey has close relations with many of them. Such relations should not harm anyone.
Therefore, relations took their natural course. Trade developed greatly. Turkish businessmen were involved in major projects in Russia. Russian tourists came in big numbers to the resorts in Turkey.
Energy, a priority topic in today’s World was of course at the background of relations. The Russian Federation is the big oil and gas supplier. Turkey is a major oil and gas consumer. The oil comes from Azerbaijan through Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. The natural gas comes from Russia through land since 1986 and through Black Sea underwater pipeline since 2005. Turkey also receives natural gas from Azerbaijan since 2007 through another pipeline. This makes Turkey a transit hub. Turkish requirements are growing every passing day. Also the European Union is now engaged in a new energy policy and would like to diversify its resources. Turkey would like to do the same. Hopefully, this should not be a problem between Turkey and Russia.
The other question at the background as far as the Turkish public is concerned is the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots. In 2004 when the Turkish Cypriots in a referendum voted for the Annan Plan and the Greek Cypriots voted against, the UN Secretary General submitted a Report to the Security Council and asked that the unnecessary restrictions imposed on the Turkish Cypriots be lifted. This Report was never discussed at the Security Council because of the objection of Russian Federation.
Turkish-Chinese relations
Being the inheritors of the two peoples on the historical Silk Road, Turkey and China appreciate each other’s endeavors to develop their economies. They also desire to develop trade and investment. 2007 has been a year when this desire has given some concrete results. The Turkish Businessmen’s and Industrialists’ Association (TÜSÝAD) opened a representation in Beijing. The Mayor of Ýzmir and the President of the Aegean Free Zone attended the International CEO Roundtable of Chinese and Foreign Multinational Corporations in Beijing. On the Chinese side , there is the decision to give life to the historical Silk Road. As is known, this trade route was connecting Chine to Turkey. China has embarked since 1980 on a major economic effort and the results it obtained made it a great economic power. Today, we see China getting involved in all parts of the World for economic purposes. The thinking behind this drive has recently been given by the Chinese in their semi-official paper in the following terms. There are four growing economies: Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICS according to Goldman Sachs definition of 2003). Recently five other emerging economies have been added: Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentina (VISTA).Once steered onto the economic fast track, these countries will cause changes to the world economic map. This conception shows that China is looking to Turkey in this new light.
The two countries looking forward to their future economic partnership, continuously exchange visits of their political and military officials. 2007 has been a busy year on this score as well.
Reþat ArýmTurkey’s Middle Eastern Neighborhood
Turkey has great interest in the establishment of peace and stability in its Southern neighborhood. However, 2007 has not witnessed much change in the general outlook of the region. Instability in the region is a big concern for the many nations around the world meaning disruption of essential oil flow. For Turkey it is more than that.
The US intervention in Iraq has disrupted the presence of a certain balance of power in the region and encouraged ethnic and sectarian rivalry and infighting among the many groups to take advantage for domination. The prolonged incertitude of the future of Iraq has never the less created a major security threat for Turkey. The rise of fundamentalist tendencies, the conflict between the Sunni and Shiite, the increasing aggressiveness of the Kurds in Iraq at times reaching irredentist levels and also the harboring of the PKK terrorists in Northern Iraq and their over the border incursions have all constituted serious security challenges. The fate of Turkmen in Iraq is also another consideration as they constitute a significant part of the population.
While there is a certain progress made in handing over responsibility and achieving coordination among the Shiites and Sunnis, the chaos in Iraq remains to be a serious problem and the intransigence of the Kurds continue. The fate of Kerkuk remained on the agenda until very recently when the Kurds agreed for the postponement of a referendum intended to decide whether it will be part of the autonomous Kurdish region or play a crucial role in amalgamating the differing groups around Iraq’s territorial integrity. As envisaged in the interim Constitution the referendum would have been held after holding a census and normalization of the situation there. Normalization was not possibly achieved due to Kurdish agitation and transfer of population to influence the outcome of the census. To avoid a fait a complis on the fate of Kirkuk, Turkey believes that as a multi ethnic city possessing also enormous oil reserves, a special status should be accorded to that city since this will also serve as a positive factor in holding the territorial integrity of Iraq and enabling the whole population to benefit from the oil revenues. Moreover, Kirkuk has historically been populated mostly by the Turkmen who had been reduced in size with the systematic deportations during the Saddam years.
Turkey has from the very start of the US intervention advocated search for a solution to the fate of Iraq at a regional level. It has been instrumental in the establishment of Iraq’s Neighbors Forum which has finally been recognized as a positive initiative also by the US. The Forum meeting in Istanbul this year was indicative of the need to search for regional solutions.
However, the immediate threat for Turkey from this unstable Iraq was the increasing over the border incursions of the PKK terrorist elements now harboring in Northern Iraq and receiving not only a welcoming hand and protection but support from some Kurdish tribal elements there who have remained distant to Turkish sensitivities. The Turkish public opinion, government and the military, on the other hand, were much irritated by the loss of lives at the hands of these terrorists.
Patience were running out and Turkey tried hard to seek the cooperation of the Iraqi Government in fighting these terrorist groups, in ending the hospitality they had received, in preventing the PKK utilization of the Iraqi territory as a base against Turkey and in handing over the leadership residing in Northern Iraq for trial. In fact, an agreement was signed which did not prove to be effective so far. As no progress could be achieved in these attempts, Turkey sought the assistance of the US as the occupying power in Iraq when Prime Minister Erdoðan visited Washington on November 5th. The declaration by US President Bush that the US considered PKK terrorists as common enemy and that they would cooperate in providing necessary intelligence to fight these groups was a turning point in the soured relations between the two allies since the Turkish Parliament’s decision to permit US troops utilizing Turkish territory to invade Iraq fell short of the required majority. Lately, Turkey, in self defense, has made several precision air raids to the PKK camps in Northern Iraq to eliminate the operational capabilities of the PKK, making sure that the civilians in the vicinity were not harmed and no other resident of Northern Iraq was targeted.
Since the balance of power in the region tilted towards Iran as the result of the US presence in Iraq, the nuclear ambitions of Iran has also been a concern for Turkey. The claims by Iran that its main focus is the strengthening of its defense should not be overlooked. However, its other neighbors around are restless as well and while it may seem paradoxical they are becoming more and more dependant on US presence in the region. In the face of the Iranian nuclear ambitions, Turkey has adopted a very cautious approach advocating a diplomatic solution to this problem: suspension of enrichment activities and full compliance with the strict IAEA inspection rules. Despite its military power and capabilities and its NATO membership presumably protecting it from foreign aggressions, Turkey may be compelled to consider also to strengthen its defenses even in the absence of territorial issues between the two neighboring countries. Meanwhile, Turkey’s increasing energy needs compel it to seek cooperation with Iran which is rich in oil and natural gas reserves. Therefore, Turkey has made several agreements with Iran in the exploitation and purchase of gas to diversify its needs. This has met US criticism. But since that agreement would not materialize soon it is hoped that the situation in the region will improve by then and this will also receive the understanding of its ally US. In the mean time, the US representatives have already had contacts with the Iranians in Baghdad this year although strictly related with their involvement in certain activities there and limitation of their influence on radical Shiites. However, this may augur new developments in connection with the US-Iranian relations which may gradually alleviate the pressure on Turkey in the long run.
As for the Palestinian issue, Turkey is aware of its limitations. However, since it is a problem underlying the many factors of instability in the region, Turkey tries hard to be a facilitator in the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict since it is one of the rare countries in the region having close diplomatic relations with both parties. Turkey, through its Union of Chambers of Commerce and Commodity Exchanges, is involved in the establishment of an industrial zone initially envisaged for Rafah in Gaza but later moved to the West Bank. For the signing of the agreement for this initiative the President of Israel Shimon Peres and President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas were in Turkey just before the November 27 International Middle East Conference in Annapolis. The two Presidents’ addressing the Turkish Parliament was a rare and important event considering the distancing of many countries in the region for any similar initiative. It is hoped that a non-illusionary peace could be achieved if the parties stick to their commitments and negotiate in good faith.
Turkey has troops within the UNIFIL II in Lebanon to assist through the UN in the stabilization of the situation there. Turkey’s relations with another of its Southern neighbors, Syria, is improving drastically. President Bashar Asad’s visit for a second time to Turkey and signing of cooperation agreements is indicative of this. Turkey had been instrumental in Syria’s participation at the Annapolis Conference.
Whether you call Turkey the only European country neighboring the Middle East or at least the only accession negotiating country bordering the region, the forthcoming year will keep Turkey busy following developments in this restless corner of the world. Geography cannot be changed and Turkey will be affected with developments there. However, as a facilitator or through other means it can affect developments where it has historical and cultural ties.
Oktay Aksoy