Unlike the earlier presentations, I cannot say anything is new in Turkey-EU relations. But I will try to summerize how it is at present.

No doubt that there is a constant evolution in the international scene and European Union is not immune from this process of change. Over the years, even its name had to be changed to match the requirements of the day and of the process of institutional restructuring of Europe. It started as an economic community of 6 nations and gradually enlarged in several phases into its present 27 member economic and political union.It was originally European Coal and Steel Community, evolving into the EEC (European Economic Community), later EC (European Community) and eventually assumed its present title EU (European Union).

For Turkey, which had first applied to the EEC for associate membership back in 1959 and associate membership attained with the Ankara Agreement in 1963, relations with this phenomenal formation have been uneven. But since the Helsinki Summit of 1999 where Turkey was accorded candidate status and negotiations started in 2005, one can say that despite some hurdles put on the way by some EU members, Turkey has maintained a determined stand in its eventual aim.

At every turn of event, at every change in the language utilized, there is need to take new steps to meet the new challanges. Therefore, it is necessary to make a good evaluation of the changing circumstances. When Europe was restructuring its economy, more particularly the functioning of its market mechanisims, Turkish application for associate membership had more of a political tint. Therefore, its concern for its nascent industry against the European competition was always present behind the minds of the politicians, delaying rapid progress in its relations with the EC. But now that it feels more confident with its industruy, it is Europe, while trying to cope with the effects of global economic crisis, which is putting on brakes to its future enlargement. The results of the recent elections for the European Parliament have created dismay in Turkish public opinion as Turkey's membership was brought up as an issue by some right wing politicians to exploit the unfounded racist fears of part of the eloctorate. Yes, there is now a 736 member Europoean Parliament with more of its members who may be apprehensive with Turkish membership in the EU, but there is also a big number who would not hesitate to encourage and support Turkey to complete its reform programme and harmonization with the EU acquis.

It is true that the Union itself is going through a period of difficulties. The process of adoption of the Lisbon Treaty is still not very clear, therefore the shape the Union will take in the future, is also vague. But indications are that a loose union will not only survive but gradually assume new powers which will also be beneficial for all the members. It is also true that its latest enlargement has been a little too rapid, digestion may take longer when financial means are getting meager. On top of all these the global economic crisis has necessiated leaders in the club to be less altruistic and they have focused more on their own country's problems. The election campaigns also show that the electorate is also more concerned with their countries' problems and therefore are easily exploited by radical activists. The weak turnout at the elections may be attributed to this.

Meanwhile, accession negotiations with Turkey are proceeding, although not at a speed Turkey had initially expected. There are 35 chapters to negotiate. So far negotiations have been concluded only on 10 chapters, one of them has been temporarily closed to go over at the conclusion of the negotiations. One more chapter (on taxation) is expected to be opened before the end of the Chech Presidency, that is before the end of this month. Yet 8 chapters cannot be negotiated because of Greek Cypriot objections and 5 chapters because the French consider them to be leading to membership. And now Greece is threatening to veto one more chapter, the one on "justice, freedom and security". As a result the enthusiasm on the part of Turkey has been lost. The Government and the Parliament have been reluctant to push forward the harmonization process of the Turkish legislation with the EU acquis and the reform packages required to meet the Copenhagen critaria are lagging. The past  two years when the momentum was lost, it must be remembered, that it also was a period when democratic institutions were going through tests and one general, one local  and a Presidential election took place.

At any rate, the 47 th meeting of the EU-Turkey Association Council took place on May 19 th in Brussels just before the EP elections. The position paper prepared for the EU cannot ignore the strategic importance of Turkey for the Union. Turkey's active and constructive role in the initiatives it has taken in relation to the South Caucasus and the Middle East are welcomed. And the paper enumerates expectations towards political, administrative and judicial reforms, as well as observance of international human rights norms. With regard to the economic criteria, Turkey's functioning market economy is emphasized and constant discussion in assessing the economic and financial performance of Turkey is foreseen. Shortcomings in fighting corruption, safeguards to prevent torture and ill treatment, concerns for freedom of expression, freedom of religion and respect for and protection of minorities and cultural rights are specified. The Turkish side has indicated  its determination to meet the requirements and make the necessary changes in its legislation. The National Programme adopted in December last year indicates the process for harmonization. But the pace needs to be accelerated.

The Greek Cypriot membership in the Union realized before the conclusion of the negotiations  between the Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots conducted under the aegis of the UN to settle their differences and ignoring the fact that it was the Greek Cypriots who had rejected the Anan Plan for settlement, a plan drafted by the previous Secretary General of the UN, also supported by the EU Commission, is the main stumbling block before the EU-Turkey relations. This needs to be put on the right track. If the credibility of EU, lost in Turkey with the Greek Cypriot membership, could be restored, the momentum will be gained.

As Prof. Hendrik Spruyt indicated in his keynote address, the first day of the Conference, EU has an incomplete contract needing further action as it enlarges. Indeed, it is no different from the so called "open-ended" negotiation framework Turkey has with the EU. All it needs iscontinued determination by Turkey to overcome its shortcomings and for the EU a commitment to fulfill its  obligations towards a full membership perspective for Turkey. There may be changes in the international scene requiring adaptation for the new circumstances but respect to treaty obligations should not be questioned.

I may sound a little philosphical  but this is where we stand at the moment!

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Presented on June 19 th,2009 at the 8 th METU Conference on International Relations at the Panel on "Turkish Foreign Policy Responding to Changes in International Conditions" organized by the Foreign Policy Institute