The Turkish Foreign Policy is able to respond to changes in the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan  because of its historical experience, geographical location and good relations with all the countries concerned. In the face of the prevailing situation in the 3 sub-regions, Turkish use of soft power is required . Turkey has  been a facilitator in the contacts between Israel and the Palestinians. In Iraq ,Turkey has taken many initiatives to help secure the unity of the Iraqi State.Turkish President brought about a meeting between the Presidents of Afghanistan and Pakistan in Ankara.  Mr. Ahmet Davutoğlu,the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs visited Pakistan and Afghanistan last week Turkey has special relations with these two countries.. Turkish soft power in the fields of health and education became apparent when relevant institutions were visited: The Turkish Ministry of Education had built "Turkish- Afghani Girls' High School" for 300 students.The Turkish International Cooperation Agency (TİKA) is very active in both Pakistan and Afghanistan. Afghan diplomats are trained  at the Ministry of Foreign Afffairs in Ankara.  Turkish and Pakistan Foreign Ministers decided to hold a regional summit on Afghanistan and its neighbours in November in Turkey to discuss peace and security. Turkish and Afghan Foreign Ministers have announced the formation of the "Turkish- Afghani High Strategy Council".The contribution of Turkey to ISAF is well known.

Today, unfortunately, both Pakistan and Afghanistan are in deep trouble. Afghanistan has experienced foreign invasion and the country was ruined. Pakistan now struggles with Taliban also. The major military operation in the Swat Valley has created a tremendous refugee problem. But this is not the first time Pakistan faces the refugee problem. First came the refugees who fled Afghanistan after the Soviet  invasion in 1979.Then  after September 11,2001 a further million or so Afghans came to evade US-NATO bombardment.   Many were repatriated through UNHCR and in 2007 the remaining were about 2 million. Add to that the millions of displaced persons from Swat valley,we can see the enormity of the problem.

For purposes of analysis, it may not be wrong to take the area covering the three sub-regions of Israel- Palestine,Iraq and Afghanistan-Pakistan as one big  geopolitical entity. As a matter of fact, they form a continuum whithin which some actors play a determining role. The US is definitely  the important  actor. Already,the US is using the denomination of AFPAK. Russia has been active in all three sub-regions. Turkey has important interests in them..

In a recent speech at the Chatham House in London  interesting concepts have been put forward: they are persistent conflict, the complexity of the terrain and hybrid adversaries ( a combinattion of State, non-state and proxy forces).These concepts suit very well the area we are talking about. The big geopolitical entity is an area where there is a persistent conflict. The area is unstable, to say the least.

If  we accept the proposition that it is a big geaopolitical entity,then all the sub-regions require a certain will power on the part of the major actors or the international community. Last 8 years have shown that the will power was lacking in 2 of the sub-regions.

1.The most conspicious lack of will power was witnessed in the Israel-Palestinian sub-region. The US Adminstration is the only  power to affect things  in this region.. During the Bush  Era and all through the Iraq War, the picture in this sub-region  was completely altered.The meetings of the Quartet almost turned into a formality. The Road Map was not really operative.The situation on the ground  was not giving hope. There was only the rhetoric of "two states". The Obama Administration came to power and brought new hopes.But,it faced  a new  and uncompromising Israeli Government. The first major test of the new Israeli Government came when Mr.Netanyahu   officially visited the United States  on 18 May ,2009. President Obama said "they had an extensive  discussion about the possibilities of restarting  serious negotiations on the issue of Israel and the Palestinians". The President also asked the Prime Minister.to stop building settlements on the West Bank. Prime Minister Netanyahu says that they will negotiate if the Palestinians recognize Israel as a Jewish State.

Secretary of State Clinton reiterated that the settlement activity should stop.Later,the US Special Envoy for Middle East Peace traveled to the region.   Mr.  Mitchell assured Mr. Netanyahu that the U.S. commitment to Israel's security is "unshakable" ,  despite differences between the two allies on the issues of Jewish settlements and the creation of a Palestinian state.  The U.S. envoy also said Israel and the Palestinians must stick to terms of the internationally backed "road map" to Middle East peace, which calls for the establishment of a separate Palestinian state.   After talking to President Mahmoud Abbas he told the reporters that  President Barack Obama has made it clear that " the only viable resolution to this conflict is for the aspirations of both sides to be met through two states".  He said the US was seking the "prompt resumption and early conclusion" of Israeli-Palestinian talks.

Prime Minister Netanyahu gave his long awaited speech on 14 June.

He gives the impression that he wants to go to the basics as far as the Israeli-Palestinian problem is concerned.He wants mutual recognition. Probably he wants to change the equation  of the Cold War years( land for peace)  into another equation that can be described as ( peace for peace).He  wants a demilitarized Palestinian State.Of course this is his bargaining position. Mr. Netanyahu,as a hardliner, also kind of bargains with the US President,because he hints to the natural growth of the settlements.

2.During the time since September 11,2001, maybe Iraq was handled in isolation, neglecting the linkage between Iraq and the Israeli- Palestinian affair. If there were any progress in the Israeli-Palestinian affair, it would have helped the situation in Iraq. Years and many lives were lost because of this neglect. But,ultimately, with changes in the sub-region Iraq is coming to fruition slowly. The decision to leave Iraq has been taken by the Obama Administration But it is not yet certain what will be the shape of the new Iraqi State. There are still few elections to take place.The status of Kirkuk has to be defined. The local elections have shown that the Prime Minister,Mr.Maliki has a good support among the population. In the meantime,some developments have seen the day in the question of oil and gas.

3.The military campaign in Afghanistan started  following the 11 Sepember attacks on the United States. At the time,we followed with amazement the Operation Enduring Freedom that began on October 7, 2001. Taliban was dislodged. But, we observe that the security situation has worsened there in the last couple of years. Afghanistan has become a test case for NATO.Experts conclude now that this is an unwinnable war. Of course, regional dynamics  play a major part. The border with Pakistan is  2.500 km long. There are 10 million Peshtuns in Afghanistan and 20 million in Pakistan. Medresas in Pakistan teach Jihad. How did we come to this position after 8 years of fighting? On 12 August 2003 NATO moved beyond Europe's frontiers first time in its history and went to Afghanistan.  That was the result of NATO's ongoing transformation.  Bonn process worked.  There was a Transitional Structure. The Constitution was in place. In 2004 Elections were held. But the Taliban first melted into the population,then regrouped, reformed and started the insurgency. Some people say that perhaps the exclusion of Taliban in Bonn was a mistake. But,maybe too much focus on Iraq was also a mistake. Indeed,today there are people who say that President Obama shifting the focus to Afghanistan is assuming there is a stable Iraq, which is not the case.

The US Presidential candidate Obama had already promised that he would  change the focus from Iraq to Afghanistan.He fulfilled his promise and on March 27, 2009 he announced a comprehensive and new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. The main target would be al Qaeda  in Pakistan and Afganistan.The safety of the American people and the people around the World was at stake. He ordered the deployment of 17.000 troops to the area. Also 4.000 troops would be sent to train the Afghan security forces. Also there would be a civilian effort.  A Trilateral dialogue among the US, Afganistan and Pakistan would be instituted. The New York Times reported that a big debate had taken place to widen the Afghan war.

UN Security Council Resolution of 23 March 2009 recognizes that there is no purely military solution to ensure stability in Afghanistan. There are many international initiatives designed to  ensure that. It also recognizes that the threat to the security and stability of Afghanistan is  posed by the Taliban, Al-Qaeda,illegally armed groups,criminals and those involved in the narcotics trade.This shows the enormity of the job at

When we consider the three sub-regions,we cannot escape the conclusion that they have the following common characteristics:

1. they are very unstable
2. terrorism is the permeating element  Also, following September 11, the enemy was international terrorism. Consequently, in October 2001 a war was started in Afghanistan
3. hard power could not help solve the basic problems

The 3 sub-regions are somewhat interconnected:

• The Israeli-Palestinian question is the problem of the Middle East. But, terrorism that afflicts the  other two regions is fed by what happens in the Holy Land.
• The same applies to Iraq. Terrorism in the other two regions is fed by invasion,occupation,or whatever you want to call it.
• Pakistan and Afghanistan bears the brunt of what happens in the other two regions.
• We may conclude that the big geopolitical entity deserves all the care and  attention that the international community can provide.

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Presented on June 19 th,2009 at the 8 th METU Conference on International Relations at the Panel on "Turkish Foreign Policy Responding to Changes in International Conditions" organized by the Foreign Policy Institute