The future of Iraq will be determined by the demands of the new international conjuncture, the conjuncture that started to be formed in September 11 and would probably be taking its final shape following the war in Iraq. However, we can from now on make our calculations basing ourselves on more modest but still relevant elements such as the geopolitics of Iraq. Iraq is part of the Arab World. It is also a Middle East country. These two characteristics will to a large extend influence the outcome.

In recent history, Iraq as an Arab country with such geopolitical position was involved in diverse cooperation schemes. The Iraqi regime cooperated closely with the Soviet Union. Later, the regime managed to get arms from Western countries during the war against Iran. For eight years Arab countries supported Iraq, which they considered a shield against Iran. Then, everything suddenly changed when Iraq invaded Kuwait. Iraq was first isolated in the Arab World. After many years the Arab countries wanted to have Iraq in their League even when Saddam Hussein was in power. Therefore, Post-Saddam Iraq will be eagerly awaited to join the Arab family. Iraq also has a special position among Arab countries: in the region one must distinguish between Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon on the one hand, and the Gulf Countries and Yemen on the other. In this picture, Iraq with Syria may form the nucleus of the first group.

Iraq is also a Middle Eastern country. It is a major oil-producing country in the region. As such it is in a position to contribute to economic cooperation schemes. All countries would welcome it.

The two above-mentioned qualifications make it imperative for Iraq to have good relations with its Arab and non-Arab neighbors.

As far as the Arab neighbors are concerned, they will probably expect the New Iraq to be a realistic and moderate country free of the big ambitions dating from the times of Nasser of Egypt. They would not like to have again a regime in Baghdad threatening her neighbors and bringing another catastrophe to the Arab World. The Iraq War must have shown to every country one of the consequences of the terrorist events of September 11.

As to the non-Arab neighbors of Iraq, it can be premature at this stage to try to analyze the considerations of Iran.

Turkey is certainly looking forward to having the best of relations with Iraq. However Turkey has some major concerns. The territorial integrity of the state should be preserved.

In the new set-up there should not be any loopholes that might jeopardize the unity of Iraq.

Northern Iraq should be prevented from becoming a safe- haven for terrorists. The legitimate rights of the Turcomans should be preserved. The natural resources of Iraq must belong to the Iraqi people as a whole.

Paradoxically Israel seems to be the country poised to play the determining role in the future of Iraq. It is no accident that the “road map” prepared by the Quartet is going to be delivered to the Israelis and Palestinians in the coming days.  The way the Palestinian problem will be handled in the coming months will have its impact on the modalities of state building in Iraq. A fair treatment of the Palestinians and a light at the end of the tunnel will help the establishment of a moderate Iraqi regime. Conversely, in case the road map suffers setbacks the Iraqi people would be tempted to vent their feelings rather than using their logic while deciding on a new government. For these reasons Iraq and Palestine seem to be interconnected. Solution to the Palestine problem will help Iraq. A solution to Iraq as described above may help the Palestinian problem.