Provincial elections held on 31 January mean a lot for Iraq. Iraqis went to the polls in fourteen of eighteen governorates; the three governorates in the North will have their local elections when their electoral law will be ready, in Kirkuk the elections have been postponed. Such a large scale poll will certainly indicate something for the future of Iraq.

Let us first consider what was expected of these provincial elections. The vote is like an opinion poll on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki who took office in 2006. Whether his Da'wa party would get a big support was the main question. The fact that he successfully concluded the agreement with the U.S. on troop withdrawal was the major point in his favor.

The vote would also indicate which party stands the best chance of success in parliamentary election end of 2009. Considering the fact that Sunni Arabs presently control mostly the west and middle provinces, Shiites the south and Kurds the north , the vote has major importance for the future political set-up.

The results would also influence the timing of the U.S troop withdrawal; the US commander in Iraq and the U.S Joint Chiefs of Staff already made remarks on that possibility.

Finally, the question was how the ideas of Federalism, Natural Resources and Disputed Territories would be handled in the future. Would the result of the election affect in any way the principles set forth in the constitution? We should remember that the constitution dates back from 2004. Today, however, after two agreements signed between the Iraqi government and the United States, the climate is different. There is talk that the Obama Administration may withdraw the American forces even before the time foreseen in the agreements. Under these circumstances, the municipal elections may reflect the real wishes of the Iraqi people.

It should be remembered that in 2005, Sunni Arabs mostly boycotted the election. This time the large number of Sunni candidates shows that the participation will be secured.

Given the political landscape in Iraq in 2009 we may also be curious to see how the votes of the tribes and the Church people would affect the outcome.

The votes have been cast on 31 January, but the main trends will only appear in a few days time when the first results will be published.

From the press reports on 3 February 2009 it is understood that Prime minister Maliki's Da'wa party had a sweeping victory. It seems that Iraqi voters chose secular and nationalist parties over their religious rivals, whom they blame for fostering sectarian differences between Shia and Sunni and taking an active part in the sectarian civil war in 2006-2007.

If these reports were confirmed by poll results in a few days, it might mean a shift towards secularism and nationalism, a major change in Iraqi politics.

Indeed these reports have been confirmed when the poll results were officially announced by the independent High Electoral Commission on 5 February, 2009. Prime Minister Maliki's Dawa Party garnered the most votes of any party in nine of Iraq's provinces. A first analysis of the vote was that many Iraqis want a strong central government, rather than one where regions hold more power than the center, but they do not want all the power in the hands of one party. In fact, it seems that Mr. Maliki's party will have to form coalitions to elect the governors of the provinces.

Election results also show that candidates who defended a united Iraq got more votes. Proponents of a weak central government and strong provinces or regions, like the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, the Shiite İslamist party of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim were defeated.

We may say that these provincial elections have certainly strengthened Mr. Maliki's hand in anticipation of the general elections to be held by the end of the year, but there are still many unknowns as to the future shape of Iraqi politics.