It is always interesting to look the events of 2006 in retrospect and try to see where these lead us in the coming year, even though it is nigh impossible to make predictions for the future in a fluctuating society. For the purposes of this analysis we must not treat domestic and foreign issues separately as they impact each other. This makes the job of analysing the developments of 2006 in different categories as internal problems or exclusively external. It is true that there are purely external and purely domestic issues but in this globalizing world such separation is becoming more and more difficult even for minor issues. Another difficulty in categorization of issues lies in the separation of issues as social, political, economic, security, defence etc. as, generally, issues that we may wish to include in one category is in reality multi-faceted.

The chronic foreign policy problems can be listed as EU-Turkey relations, neighbourhood relations, relations with major powers of the world and issues of globalization:
Probably the most important issue is Turkey EU relations which have a multitude of implications for Turkish foreign and domestic issues and policies.

We could begin with the present interlude in Turkey’s Odyssey towards accession to the European Union. As the Turkish ship approaches, EU waters timidity seems to have markedly increased both in Europe and Turkey. EU wishes Turkey to firmly anchor in Europe but does not wish the Turks to disembark and meddle in their own affairs; they would like to see a really slow boat before the anchor is in place.

However they would like to maintain control on the ship’s rudder and house rules. I don’t know how much this analogy describes the current state of Turkey’s accession process. What is clear, however, is that the EU organs have so far given the impression that to begin and  proceed with the accession negotiations no political conditions would be imposed. In the case of Turkey, EU analysts in their progress reports deal with almost every aspect of life in Turkey, but appear to be callous or even resort to fiat when Turkey’s external relations are concerned.  EU may order Turkey to open its ports to Greek Cypriots but why ignore the existence of a major problem in Cyprus. EU wants to play a strategic role in the world (see Solana’s New European Strategy paper), how can they tolerate and even endure a member that refuses to put its house in order? Arguably, EU follows a policy that follows the line of least resistance by letting the outsiders pay the bill at the cost of fairness. Maybe this line of approach to world affairs lies in the current crisis of identity and in the failure in formulating a document of vision that would guide Europeans in their endeavor in creating a real union that would respond to the challenges of next decades. But at this stage, danger resulting from several unanswered questions, loom large in the offing. How can we keep sailing without knowing if it will ever dock at the European pier? Some of the crew are already impatient and wish to set sail to other waters.

Indeed if the waiting period will be one or two decades before all conditions- no matter how ambiguous and undefined they are-are satisfied there is some oddity in the whole negotiating process. Eight chapters will not be opened until Turkey opens its ports and airports to Greek Cypriot shipping. It is an undeclared fact that this will mean a de facto recognition of the Greek State of Cyprus as the Government of the Republic of Cyprus although they do not represent the entire Island. Hence we face a dilemma; so long as there are some EU members who oppose the idea of Turkey becoming a full member even some day in the future Greek Cypriots will most likely block or substantially delay Turkey’s negotiation process, unless and until the Cyprus question is settled in the way they like i.e. the status of the Turks should be no more than a superlative minority under their sovereignty. Turkey and the Turks, having waited for more than forty years to attain a status of equality, can hardly accept this. Here is the impasse. Even if by a miracle, one day, Greek Cypriots are persuaded not to object, there will be Greece, which is very quiet these days, but has yet moved an inch from its exorbitant claims in the Aegean Sea; and they may very likely come forward to use negotiation and/or accession process of Turkey to acquire full sovereignty over the entire Aegean space. Therefore, we must accept the reality that even if Turkey fulfils all its membership obligations to accept EU acquis, Turkey’s membership is put to Greek calens. Is this just and fair? Surely Turkey for centuries has belonged to the family of European states and since 1949 is a member of the Council of Europe that aims to bring about a closer unity among its members. Yet, since the end of the Second World War Turkey has failed to fully modernize its society to the accepted norms of Europe. We still need to reform our democracy, human rights, rule of law, economy, social and political structures etc, etc. The nine reform packages that have gone through our parliament in recent years still need to be followed by more packages and more implementation. However, so long as Turkey continues to fulfill its pledges of modernization, its membership in the European Union becomes a natural right as a peer European power and it would not be a gift from Europe, nor a gift from Turkey to EU.

Yet, mutual misunderstandings prevail. There are many people in Turkey who keep asking “will they (European Union) ever accept us as a member?” Is it not too early to ask this question before we have carried out our reforms in a way that would satisfy us and enable us to say our value systems and democratic norms are not below any country in Europe? It is obvious that once we are in a position to satisfy ourselves with our norms than it will be much easier to deal with European countries on resolving political issues and the accession process. If we lose too much time and delay our reforms in anticipation of concrete pledges from EU, we will be moving further away from our main moral and ideological continent- Europe. It is also a fact that European Union is not united in denying membership to Turkey, there are many countries that are supportive of the Turkish bid, and believe that Turkey’s EU vocation should not be held hostage to Greek policies of revendication. Turkey’s progress in updating its norms will help these supporters to argue more forcefully in silencing the opposition.