Turkey's fruitless quest for membership in the European Union has a history of half a century. Greece and Turkey on the South East edge of NATO were valuable countries for the defence and construction of the future union of Europe as they had already taken part in all European organizations since 1949. Turkey followed Greece in 1963 to sign an Association agreement with the EEC containing all the paraphernalia of pre-accession such as free circulation of individuals and services as well as goods and capital according to a time table worked out in 1973 with consideration to be given for full membership after the establishment of a customs union.   Although Turkish military intervention in Cyprus to prevent annexation of the Island to Greece as proclaimed by Greek Junta and their supporters in Cyprus and to prevent extermination of the Turkish Cypriot community living in ghettos since 1964 when the Greek Cypriot massacre drove the  Turks from the  Government of Cyprus was in full conformity with the founding treaties the Republic of Cyprus, this had profound effects on Turkey's relations with Europe and the United States. Greece was accepted as a member of the EU as a perceived gesture of protection and support in the unresolved disputes in the Aegean Sea. With the Greek membership in EU as from 1981, Turkey's relations with EU plunged into a virtual period of hibernation. All EU actions of a positive nature towards Turkey were blocked by Greek veto for more than two decades.

In the meantime the thaw in East-West relations and significant economic reforms in Turkey changed the country's marginal position vis-à-vis Europe, the Soviet world and the Middle East. With the break-down of the Soviet Union Turkey's marginal position began turn into a centrality in a wide region. This positive shift in Turkish economy and its hinterland did not escape the attention of the European Union. While agreeing to observe the time table for the establishment of the customs union with Turkey, EU sought to silence the opponents of Turkey's eventual membership by starting membership negotiations with Cyprus totally ignoring the existence of the Turkish part of Cyprus and by deciding in Madrid in December 1995 that Turkey would remain a strategic neighbor like Russia, Ukraine and the Southern Mediterranean countries. However, Turkish reforms to fulfill the Copenhagen criteria and the suspension by Turkey of  political dialogue with EU as well as a change in Germany where SDP had come to  power and the promise to Greece that Cyprus would become a member with the next EU enlargement led to a volte face in EU approach towards Turkey. In 1999 Helsinki Summit while Turkey was declared a candidate for membership while negotiations continued with Cyprus.

The following years were crucial for Cyprus while on one hand, United Nations Secretary General was supervising negotiations between Turkish and Greek communities for the formation of a union in Cyprus composed of two component states having equal status, Greek Cypriots were negotiating on behalf of the Republic as a whole  for EU membership. The final proposals of the UN Secretary General supported also by EU were put to referanda on both sides of Cyprus in 2004; as the Turkish Cypriots accepted the proposals, Greek Cypriots rejected. But the dice was cast, and the Greek Cypriots became a member of EU, the same year the promised lifting of the embargos on the Turkish Cypriots would not be lifted by EU.

EU tried to compensate this blow by beginning membership negotiations with Turkey. The good news was dampened, however, by the strategy EU would follow in conducting the negotiations. Turkish economy and social structure were adequately developed to complete the negotiation process in a few years with a strict time-table for reforms but the maverick character of the  strategy called for an open ended negotiation process with no time-table or benchmarks. All EU members would have to approve the opening and closure of each of the 35 chapters. Chapters could be closed only temporarily to be re-negotiated or re-closed at the end of the negations. So far, only ten chapters are open and one chapter has been opened and closed. But, none other has been closed, even if temporarily, during the past five years. Furthermore, because Turkey refuses to open its ports to Greek Cypriot shipping and aircraft (and in fact  recognize the Greek Cypriot administration that usurped power in Cyprus as the government of Cyprus) and  so long as embargoes  on the Turkish part of Cyprus continue, EU has decided to suspend negotiations on 8 chapters. Cyprus also vetoes the opening of the energy chapter. As the negotiation process continues, even if falteringly, conservative political parties particularly in France and Germany have begun opposing Turkey's membership. President Sarkozy who has based his election campaign against membership of Turkey, publicly declares that Turkey should not be member and even if negotiations end successfully there should be a referendum in France. With this policy in mind, France has unilaterally suspended negotiations on five more chapters that would open the way for membership. German Chancellor Mrs. Merkel is not for the moment interfering with the progress of negotiations even though she avidly espouses a non-membership status for Turkey. Those countries like Spain, Italy or the Nordic countries that express their desire to see Turkey in the EU cannot control the current negative developments in Turkey caused by the two Greek members and France.

In the early years of association there was strong support in Turkey for membership in the European Union. For Turkey, a member and founding member in all European organizations, seeking membership in the European Union is a natural desire. Turkey as a secular country shares with Europe its state norms embodied in its constitution, laws and institutions.  It is true that because of dominance of security concerns during the cold war, Turkey paid less attention to reforming its democratic institutions and norms to the level of post war developments in Europe. However, the preparatory stages for negotiations have become a major stimulus for Turkish politicians to adopt and carry out reforms that would enhance Turkish democracy and human rights.

Great strides have already been made in this direction. But surely we need even greater reforms and their implementation all over the country and in every strata of national life.

Yet, Turkey is a comparatively large country with a population second to Germany in Western Europe and its physical and demographic geography are full of variations. As a result it is very difficult to provide homogenous income, education, infrastructure and social standards. Consequently, while the average per capita income is around ten thousand dollars; it is much higher in the west and coastal areas and much lower in Eastern Turkey where there is a problem of under-development that will need large investments in all sectors for the coming decade or two.

The 'slow-motion' progress in the negotiation process and adverse statements by several European leaders and public opinion seem to have reduced both support for EU membership and the zeal for rapid reforms in Turkey. Another factor for the disenchantment are the selective Commission demands of a political nature disregarding in many cases Turkey's national interests and founding principles, mostly in support of Greek Cypriots and the Greek Orthodox Church, even though many Turks welcome democratic reform demands by EU.

Today the Turkish political parties in the Parliament all support Turkey's eventual membership in the European Union even though their support is not highly vocal as the general atmosphere in Europe is unfavorable. Obviously, the politicians do not appear to be zealously pro-European in spite of the EU's negative attitudes. Furthermore, they do not see how  they can  surmount Greek opposition which  has become to dominate EU attitudes towards Turkey.

In Cyprus the negotiations between the Turkish and Greek leaders have begun again in 2008 under the auspices of the UN Secretary General. They seem to have agreed that their aim will be to set up a bi-zonal, bi-communal Federal Cyprus with to constituent states. While the Turkish side, with the support of the Turkish government, is earnestly negotiating to reach a solution, Greek Cypriot President is trying to assert a dominant position by signing agreements that would commit the future common government of the Island without consultation with his Turkish partner. It is using EU legal instruments to preempt the solution of the question of immovable properties on both sides of Cyprus, ignoring the fact that this issue has to be settled during the bi-communal negotiations.

From time to time Turkey's ethnic structure and PKK terrorism activities create misunderstanding about Turkish state structure. The basic principles of the Turkish Constitution  were evolved after the creation of modern Turkey in 1920s. As Turkey, like its predecessor the Ottoman Empire, is composed of many ethnicities, irrespective of their ethnic or religious backgrounds all these peoples are considered Turkish citizens with their inalienable equal legal rights guaranteed under the Turkish legal system and also under the European Convention on Human Rights and Freedoms. People with Kurdish mother-tongue are concentrated in South East Turkey although much more of them live in Turkey's major cities. As this region which is neighbor to Syria, Iraq and Iran where there are other Kurdish groups persecuted from time to time in their own countries, they are striving to attain some sort of autonomy.  During the Cold War, Soviet Union supported all sorts of subversive activities in Turkey. One of the terror groups created at the time was the Marxist-Leninist PKK which established its base first in Syria and after the First Gulf war in Iraq. The mountainous border area provided easy hit and run possibilities for PKK terror groups. This terror activity that claim to have a nationalist goal deals also with drug  trafficking to cover its expenses and has secret and sometimes open activity centers in several European countries. So long as its external roots are eradicated, PKK terror will continue to ebb and tide in the coming years although its military activities may come to an end like in other countries.

To end this article I would like to turn to the future prospects. If with the help of EU and other actors, Greek Cypriot leadership can be persuaded to reach a reasonable and workable settlement with its Turkish counterpart in Cyprus, one major hurdle in the Turkey-EU negotiation process will have been removed. Certainly, conservative French and German leaders want Turkey to be firmly anchored in Europe for security and economic reasons. Many people in Europe, however, realize that if Turkey is kept excluded from EU, their political, strategic and economic favorable position in Turkey may eventually be jeopardized as with the pressure of its neighborhood nationalism and Islamism may become radicalized and spread over to the Turkish communities elsewhere. To prevent such an outcome is in the interests of Turkey and other European countries. The best way to achieve this would be to continue the negotiations earnestly with benchmarks and to put into execution the gradual inclusion of Turkey in EU institutions. Such a course that will mean a resurrection of mutual confidence will enable Turkish politicians to push through further reforms and their implementation. Whether Turkey will be a member of EU or not should be left to the successful conclusion of the negotiations when both sides can reassess their positions and see if they really want to be partners in the European Union.

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Published in Spanish as "Union Europea-Turquia : obstaculos y perspectives"  in the July-September 2009 issue No. 32 of Vanguardia Dossier quarterly