The foreign policy of a country is generally shaped by a number of objective and subjective factors that also contribute to its formation and execution, without ignoring the fact that large number of foreign policy decisions is taken in response to an external or domestic event or input. These factors naturally vary from one country to another de- pending on their number and character as well as the size of the country. In this presentation I will discuss these factors as they relate to Turkey and her foreign policy.

First, two important factors relate to history and geography. In the case of Turkey, history is the most important factor because it has contributed to a large extent to the shaping of the political geographical map of the country. The seven hundred years of the Ottoman Empire, with its own cultural and administrative characteristics impacting a very large region, ended with its own breakdown after the First World War.

The dissolution of land empires is sometimes even as difficult as their formation and there is no clean break with the residual imperial heritage. We in Turkey assumed that the National Pact of 1919 and the Lausanne Peace Treaty of 1923 had provided this break; but it is not the case. In the years that followed the break-down that resulted from wars and the adoption of post-French Revolution ideals of nationalism, with the rise of nationalism the non-Moslem nations and Arabs, (which were also instigated by the major powers of the day bent on the destruction of the Empire), Turks were regarded, even though unfairly, as the colonialists and oppressors of these nations. Hence, their nationalism always carried an anti-Turkish element even to this day. Secondly, as the Empire dwindled large numbers of Turks and Moslems who had converted to Islam under Turkish rule, continued to look towards Turkey for the protection of their rights against nationalist oppressions in countries where they constituted minorities.

These two factors have been the source of a multitude of problems in Turkey's international relations particularly with all of her immediate neighbours. Turkish-Greek relations were marred by the fate of the Turks living in Western Thrace and in Cyprus. Turkish-Syrian relations have long been adversely affected by Syrian irredentism over Alexandretta. For many years our relations with Bulgaria stayed under the shadow of Bulgarian attempts to assimilate over one million Turks left in that country. At the root of the problems in Bosnia and Kosovo lies the Serbian determination to dominate Moslem areas of former Yugoslavia. Armenian terrorism and irredentism has its roots in the dissolution of the Empire. The psychological barrier which we have to cross in our relations with the Arab world lies again in what the Turks believe as Arab betrayal of the Ottoman commonwealth in 1916, whereas the Arabs consider themselves as oppressed people under the Ottoman rule.

Relations with Russia also is under the negative effects of mutual distrust in each other's aims and policies: a left-over from thirteen wars fought between the two empires. One must not forget that although Turkish population consist of a mixture of nearly thirty ethnic groups, the newly revived links with the Turkish people of Caucasus and Central Asia are also our important historic heritage.

Surrounded by three seas and with a foot in Europe and Asia, rich natural resources, a large surface (777.000 km2), rich natural and human resources, Turkey even by her location and characteristics is in the category of large countries. Political geography of Turkey has put this nation not only amidst former members of the Empire but it provides her significant foreign policy options as well as problems. Situated in between Asia and Europe, Turkey is both European and Middle Eastern power with an European identity. The hinterlands extend to central Asia, the Mediterranean and Balkans.

The Turkish Straits and regulations for passage of ships is a continuous problematic of the foreign policy. Ever since the creation of the Turkish Republic the defaults in the determination of political boundaries irredentism of some neighbours, along side global aspirations of the former Soviet Union has forced Turkey to maintain an effective and great military power. This power supported by judicially selected alliances have enabled Turkey to guarantee its security against external and threats.

Economy has always been one of the paramount determinants of foreign policy in every country and Turkey is no exception. Coupled with the current of geography of Turkey economic weakness has put Turkey at the receiving end of political and cultural influences and pressures of disruptive nature. The improved economic conditions of Turkey as of 1980s has reversed the direction of influences and pressures.

Turkey is now in a position of not only providing economic assistance to needy neighbouring countries, but also initiating or supporting multi-lateral co-operation schemes such as the Black Sea Economic Cooperation, ECO, MEDA, ICO, etc. Two or three satellites carry Turkey message and culture all over the Northern hemisphere. Nearly four million Turks who emigrated to Western European countries for economic reasons in 1960 and 1970s have now established themselves as respectable communities in the host countries where they own approximately 50.000 large or small business enterprises. All these initiatives constitute a permanent factor linking Turkey and Turks to the European Community. In 1999 Turkish economy ranked as the 17th in the world, and expects to become one of the ten in fifteen years time. Together with a dynamic population of over 62 million people and the large size of the country and a powerful military force, Turkey's foreign policy has acquired a strong basis.

In the last phase of the Ottoman Empire, those who wanted the preservation of the Empire broke down into three categories: those who wanted to enhance the Islamic character of the State uniting more closely with the Arabs and other Islamic nations; those who had adopted the Pan-Turkist ideology and thought the salvation of Turks laid in the union of all Turks stretching from the Balkans to Chinese Wall; and those who thought that Turks of Anatolia and Thrace were basically European and their place was in Europe. After the breakdown of the Empire the new Republic under Mustafa Kemal Ataturk chose the last way.

Many writers consider that Kemalism is an ideology adopted by modem Turkey to replace Islamic ideology. In reality Kemalism was not a modem ideology like the ones that gripped Europe and Russia. It disavowed Islamism and panturkist ideologies, in favour of the adoption of rationalism and secularism which were the long tested tenets of modem societies. Kemalism, therefore has had the effect of accentuating the Western character and European vocation of the country.

In the international area Kemalism had the initial effect of distancing Turkey from other States bome out of the Empire. This continued to be the case during for a long period. However, Turkey's successful implementation of a secular and democratic government system (though not perfect) and economic reforms coupled with the changes in the international order have begun to change the attitudes among the members of the former Empire towards Turkey. For many countries of the Balkans, Middle East and the Turkic belt, Turkey has become a centre of emulation.

At this moment we are in position to make certain predictions on the future trends in Turkish foreign policy on the basis of what has been and what may reasonably be achieved in the near future. The economic reforms and development are taking place in spite of many recent hiccups. The PKK terrorism is more or less finished. There is a strong consensus against Islamic extremism. The democratizing and Improvement of human rights is continuing and extension of freedoms of the individual is being brought up to European norms, even though Continued efforts are still required.

Adaptation of Turkish administrative and legal systems to European norm is in the offing. The progress in all these areas will become more effective if these efforts are matched by European support for Turkey's integration process in the European Union. Turkey's integration in the European structures will increase the role of effectiveness of her policies in a wide region hand in hand with EU institutions. Turkey's contributions to the Common Foreign Security Policy of EU will bring Europe and its norm closer to the regions where Turkey already has access and influence as part of the globalization of the EU’s interests and policies. Turkey, if permitted by the joint European defence policies and ESDP, will play important roles in the decision making and implementation of the Petersberg Tasks.

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* Quaderni Della Rivista “Il Politico”, No.46