While international conjuncture has changed (Reşat Arım), Turkey's EU relations have soured (Seyfi Taşhan), Turkey's relations with her neighbours are on a promising rise (Oktay Aksoy)

Towards a new conjuncture in the international scene

Reşat Arım

In 2008 we have witnessed major happening in the World. First came the events in Georgia, then the financial crisis enveloping every region of the globe.

When in August Georgia tried to establish control over parts of  South Ossetia, which has been under separatist rule since early 1990's, Russian troops entered the disputed region. A Georgia- Russian War followed. Russian troops occupied many parts of Georgia. UN Security Council debated but could not adopt any resolution to stop the fighting. It was up to the EU Presidency held by France to act to secure a cease-fire. Washington has denounced the Russian "aggression"against a sovereign nation. NATO Foreign Ministers called on Russia to immediately take its troops out of Georgia. EU was divided between those countries who want a strong response and those who support a moderate position. Russia finally recognized the independence of Abhazia and South Ossetia.

This conflict represents a new phase in the post-Soviet era. The Russians aim to stop the NATO expansion to the East. They were also against the independence of  Kosovo and already had said that it would have consequences notably in the Caucasus. They objected forcefully to the installation of US missiles and radars in Poland and the Czech Republic.

The financial and economic crisis that started in the US has taken global dimensions. To curb the negative effects, the first major initative was taken during the G-7 meeting in October 2008. It was followed by the Eurogroup meeting and then by the European Council meeting. Finally, the G-20 met on the invitation of the US president and  set in motion a process to be reviewed in March 2009.We can deduce from that decision that the international economic system may undergo changes that will also be reflected in changes in the geopolitical situation.

China is emerging as a World Power with its economic growth and big foreign currency earnings. The global economic crisis made the west turn to China. But, also China needs the Western powers, first among them the US. It needs them as a market for its product, but also for their technology, let alone their investments. China's economy reached the present level thanks to investments coming from  all over the world since 1980 to The Special Economic Zones where fantastic incentives were provided to foreign firms. China would most probably follow the trade policy which made it possible to become a rich country.

Russia because of the  rising oil prices in the last few years obtained big revenues and this made Russia more assertive. President Putin last year denounced the unipoliar system where the US was the dominant power. This year President Medvedev proposed a Euro- Atlantic security system. It can be said that Europe's dependence on Russian gas has made many European countries more vulnerable in the face of Russian openings. We will see what will be the reaction of the new American administration to such Russian moves.

The year 2008 has seen Iraq in a rather different picture compared with previous years since 2003. The "surge" has had positive results. This enabled the US to negotiate two agreements with Iraq that would have important consequences for that country and for the region. US offical stated that neihter agreement will tie the hands of the next administration. We already know that the President Obama had promised to withdraw the US military. To understand how this withdrawal will be made, it will be useful to look at the basic elements of the two agreements. One of them is SOFA (Agreement between the US and the Republic of Iraq on the withdrawal of US Force from Iraq and the organisation of their activities during their Temporary Presence in Iraq). Article 4 says that the government of Iraq requests the temporary asistance of  US Forces for the purposes of supporting Iraq in its efforts to maintain security and stability in the country including cooperation in the conduct of operations against al Qeada and other terrorist groups, outlaw groups and remnants of  the former regime. Article 24 says US Forces will withdraw no later than Dec 31,2011 from Iraq and no later than June 30, 2009 from Iraqi cities. The other one is the Strategic Framework and security Agreement signed in Bagdat on 14 December, 2008 by President Bush and Prime Minister Maliki. It is reported that this Second Agreement talks about the US role in defending Iraq from internal and external threats; US support for political recouncilation; US efforts to confront terrorist groups. It has also been declared that the agreements will not establish permanent bases in Iraq. We can conclude that the US – Iraq agreements make it possible for the US to withdraw with honour.

All the above point to the beginnig of a new conjucture in the international scene. The previous conjucture started with the terror attacks of September 11,2001 on the United States. Iraq was the main focus of attention. We will see how the new conjucture develops. For the time being, we can only analayze its effects on the major players in the World.

(17 December,2008 - Reşat Arım)

2008:Turkey and EU: Towards a "Make or Break" Year

Seyfi Taşhan

In reviewing Turkey's foreign policy decisions and implementations it is not difficult to observe that the prominent position that Western Europe and the United States occupied in these relations have entered into a period of stagnation and some retardation. It would not be to appropriate to apportion responsibility for this retardation to either Western Europe, the United states or Turkey as all of them have not spent any special effort to enliven and upgrade their cooperation.  At a time when the international scene is taking a new shape with a change of government and policies in the United States, as Russia is reassuming an assertiveness not only in its over circumference but also globally and as developing new power centers are emerging in Asia, we hope that this retardation may not be the harbinger for Turkey of a new search of international identity.   In order to understand fully the current picture one must first of all assess the impact of national interests on the character of these relations.  I would like to begin with relations EU and some of its major member states:

When the Ankara Agreement of Association was signed in 1963 the then EEC countries that were Turkey's allies in the Cold War considered Turkey as an indispensable security partner and were willing to join their destiny with her. Hence the Agreement contained all the elements of an auspicious process that was supplemented with benchmarks of integration incorporated in the Additional Protocol of 1973. But immediately after this Protocol came into force, changes in the international conditions led Turkey and EEC countries to look at each other in different perspectives: The beginnings of the détente led strategists of several member states to debate the value of alliance with Turkey from a perspective of suspicion or reduced value. Oil crisis of 1973 and ensuing economic stagnation and unemployment in Europe caused unease about the large numbers of Turkish families who by then had become settled communities in West European countries. Souring of Turkey's relations with the West became tangible with the Turkish military intervention in Cyprus in 1974. Until then most EEC countries and US were either neutral or stayed aloof to the Turkish Greek disputes and on the problem of Cyprus. With the demise of the Greek Junta, the European powers embraced Greece and within a period seven years of substantial assistance and guidance, Greece became a member of the European Community in 1981.  Western neutrality in Turkish Greek relations had now terminated and limits of Turkey' relations with EU would from then on be subject to Greek supervision and would develop only in the measure to be approved by Greece. At that time Turkey had become a socially divided country between extreme left and extreme right and those who wanted to renounce Turkey's European identity. While some wanted Turkey to become a Third World while others were talking about hard and dry ethnic nationalism. Turkey in the international scene maintained its faithful membership of NATO but in practice had become a country in the margins of Western Europe, Soviet bloc, and Middle East. In 1980's the liberal economic model also found its reflection in Turkey's international relations leading to an increase in Turkey's contacts with its wide neighborhood. By 1992 Turkey had moved from a status of marginality to one of centrality in its region. This development also impacted Turkey's relations with the European Union and the improvement of its neighborhood policies.

Reviewing the relations between Turkey and Western Europe at the end of 2008 my desire was to be able to comment on solid positive developments in Turkey and in Western European countries that would facilitate Turkey's integration in the European Union systems. Unfortunately, I am not in a position to do so as the progress that marked early years of the century seem to have grinded to a halt, even though, on the surface as new chapters are being opened for negotiations; we have a working customs union;  Turkey and EU countries are cooperating to keep peace in many countries where their help are needed, there are talk about energy cooperation and pipelines, some EU economic assistance to  projects in Turkey; Turkey has joined in the measure of 95% in foreign policy declarations issued by EU and EU  Commission publishes progress reports that Turkish authorities find ‘balanced'. On their part in this picture of contacts between Turkish and EU authorities are continuing to give the impression that the situation is normal. What is then the true picture that has been worrying those who believe in a common future for a genuine partnership and integration between EU countries of Europe and Turkey?

As far as the EU is concerned  since 1999 the name of the game is "playing for time" or "wait and see" without causing a serious break down with limited progress; and as far as Turkey is concerned it is "let us try, may be we can get in  if we  implement all European norms." Let me expand:

When EU decided to begin accession negotiations with Turkey the accession partnership document brought into being several catch conditions such as "negotiations will be open ended"; "free circulation of man power may be "suspended permanently"; by the end of the year 10 chapters would have been opened but there seems to be no chance for their closure, 8 chapters cannot be opened because Turkey refuses to recognize the Greek administration in Cyprus as the Government of Cyprus and EU cannot fulfill its promises to the people of Northern Cyprus, four chapters cannot be opened because the France objects to their opening arguing that these chapters relate to full membership. Yet, the Accession strategy paper reiterates that Turkey should be firmly "anchored in Europe".

The prospects of membership that enchanted the people of Turkey and the beginning of negotiations became a fundamental incentive for the Turkish authorities, politicians, and the public for carrying out significant reforms not only in the domain of human rights but also in government structures. However, if there was an initial euphoria it disappeared swiftly after Mrs. Merkel who is firmly opposed to Turkey's membership and Mr. Sarkozy who considered Turkey an Asiatic country came to power. Despite the fact that many EU member states discreetly supported Turkey's membership public polls showed that support for in the EU had fallen substantially. The reforms needed for membership in EU were also reforms needed to turn Turkey into a modern democratic society; yet, the public perception of EU membership as a will o' the wisp also reduced the zeal for carrying out reforms. This reduced perception led to a paling in Turkey's European identity. Although the Turkish state is a secular one, the visibility of Islam has become so wide spread that both inside and outside Turkey, this country is no longer considered as secular in its broader sense. This trend has even led the leftist opposition to accept in its ranks women members dressed in Islamic fashion. In foreign policy Turkey has become more active in the affairs of Middle East and the Caucasus regions; European affairs are in the backburner, with little public interest.

From these state of affairs an unfortunate conclusion emerges: Progress in Turkish democratic institutions can be achieved in the measure Turkey integrates itself in the European systems; reluctance of European states and public to have Turkey as a genuine partner creates a back-lash in the form reduced reform and leads to a search for a different identity in Turkey, so much so that one European journal calls the present situation and policies in Turkey as "new Ottomanism".

This is not a situation that would be acceptable for those who would like to see Turkey firmly anchored in Europe. But, regrettably neither Turkish nor European interlocutors are aware of the consequences of this growing estrangement. If this trend does not change, I am afraid; we may witness a worsening in relation patterns between Turkey and EU countries. Furthermore, because of membership solidarity EU continues to support Cypriote and Greek demands and policies against Turkey. Along with genuine reform demands EU's progress reports include political demands on highly sensitive issues on which Turkey for historic and security reasons cannot act. These become points of irritation because Turkey's unchanging attitude is clear to all. For example, present governments in Turkey cannot act unilaterally concerning the recognition of the Greek Cypriot administration as the Government of Cyprus. There are several other similar demands. Although negotiations are continuing in Cyprus between the leaders of the two communities, the behavior of the Greek leader both during the negotiations and also outside trying to brig Turkey into the picture; his signing of memoranda of understanding with countries like UK and Russia without consulting his Turkish partner in the bland and starting unilaterally oil explorations give little hope for a fair solution in 2009.

Whatever happens, it may not be possible to maintain the waiting game much further and 2009 may be a decisive year. Either both EU and Turkey will increase their integration efforts in a more constructive pattern or estrangement may become a permanent feature of relations.

(17 December,2008- Seyfi Taşhan)

EU General Affais Council Act in Support of Unjust Greek Demands

Seyfi Taşhan

General Affairs Council of the European Union has adopted a number of decisions concerning negotiations with Turkey in its meeting on December 8th. These decisions reflect a definite attitude clearly subjecting Turkish-EU relations to Turkey's catering for Greek pleasure on all points of disputes between Turkey and Greece and Turkish and Greek Cypriots. Let us see some these points and assess their applicability:

1. "…..Council repeats that Turkey needs to commit unequivocally to good neighbourly relation and the peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with the United Nations Charter, having recourse, if necessary to International Court of Justice. In this context, the Union urges the avoidance of any kind of threat, source of friction or action which could damage good neighbourly relation and peaceful settlement of disputes."

This item obviously refers to Turkish Greek disputes in the Agean and reflects what Greece has been asserting since many years. The Greek assertion is that  "there is only one dispute in the Aegean and that is the delimitation of the Continental Shelf. For the solution of this problem we may go the ICJ..". Greece refuses to go to arbitration on all other points of dispute in the Aegean which are interlocked with the question of delimitation of the continental shelf. For example, Greece claims that it has the right to extend its territorial waters from current six mile limit to twelve miles. When this expansion is applied to the islands and islets in the Agean there will be no continental shelf left for Turkey to be decided by ICJ. The Decree for this extension is awaiting the signature of the Greek President. Only Turkey's warnings about the consequences of such an extension has  persuaded Greece to withhold the Presidential signature for a while. There are also other issues for which Greece refuses to go to ICJ: Although the Laussanne Peace Treaty signed in 1923 and Paris Treaty signed in 1945 foresees that the Greek islands very closely situated to Turkish shores must remain demilitarized, Greece has militarized these islands creating a hostile atmosphere in this sea of peace. There are other problems such as ten mile unilateral air space, etc..for which Greece refuses to go to arbitration. In 1995 the then Turkish Prime Minister proposed to Greece to go to international arbitration for the solution of all these problems in a peaceful way and this was refused by Greece. Therefore, this paragraph included in the conclusions of the General Affairs Council may at best be interpreted as an attempt by EU to pressure Turkey for conceding to Greek demands.

In another paragraph General Affairs Council concludes:

"…..the Council notes with regret that Turkey has not yet fulfilled its obligation of full non-discriminatory implementation of the Additional Protocol to the Association Agreement and has not made progress towards normalization of its relations with the Republic of Cyprus…"

As far as EU is concerned Association Agreement and the Additional Protocol have become a la carte menus. Notably EU refuses to implement Articles 36 (free circulation of labour), Article 41 free circulation of services and the Financial Protocol. Until the Turkey's membership status is clarified our relations are based on the Ankara Agreement and the Additional Protocol. Turkey has shown great understanding to the economic problems faced by the EEC in connection with unemployment and has not made an issue of their reluctance to implement the above mentioned articles nor Turkey has thought of bringing up these issues for Arbitration under Article 25 of the Ankara Agreement.

Everyone knows that there have been armed clashes between Turkish and Greek Cypriots during Turkey's military intervention in the Island and a settlement has been refused by Greek Cypriots as late as 2004. Greeks have usurped the Republic of Cyprus in violation of the constitution of the Island and the Treaties that established the Republic. Until there is a solution in the Island and a Republic is founded on basis of political equality of the two communities it would not be fare to expect Turkey to recognize the current administration in Southern Cyprus as the legitimate Republic of Cyprus.

Being aware of the above mentioned disparities one cannot understand why EU General Affairs Council should insist on demanding a political price from Turkey in favor of Greece and Greek Cypriots. The reason may be membership solidarity at best or forcing Turkey to distance itself from European Union at worst- both are unfair.

(17 December,2008-Seyfi Taşhan)

Turkey's Southern and  Eastern Neighborhood

Oktay Aksoy

Turkey has pursued its foreign policy since the establishment of the Republic in line with Atatürk's dictum “Peace at Home, Peace in the World”. 2008 has also witnessed advancement of the principle of “no problems with neighbors” for Turkey. Within the proximity of its historic geography it has increased contacts, increased its trade and has developed relations to the benefit of the region which still suffers from instability and insecurity.

With Syria development of relations have become examplary as dialogue to overcome bilateral problems have been successfully pursued and  mutual steps have been taken for the realization of the projects envisaged in the Memorandum of Understanding for Cooperation between the two countries signed the year before by the Ministers of Foreign Affairs, as well as those encouraged with the coming into force of the Free Trade Agreement.

In this context, continued collaboration in the fight against terrorism, increased investments, accelaration of the work on the Arab Natural Gas Pipeline, deepening of cooperation between the Turkish Petroleum Corporation and the Syrian Oil Company, enhanced dialogue on the cross border water issues and other problems of mutual interest need to be mentioned.

Moreover, cooperation between the two countries have also contributed in the establishment of regional peace and stability. Consultations on developments in Iraq and Lebanon, and on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have no doubt been to the benefit of the international community.

The facilitator role played by Turkey has brought delegations from Syria and Israel to start proximity talks on the future of the Golan Heights. Initially many observers were skeptical about the results this might produce. However, despite the difficulties remaining before a final solution, this has been the only means to handle a most delicate problem. The success of the process seems to have been envied by many and seems to have even instigated the EU term President France to try to takeover the role of the mediator without much success. The important factor here was that the parties to the  conflict had confided in Turkey which had  good relations with both and had remained equidistant.

The same is true with Turkey's efforts for the realization of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict which lies beneath the many problems in the Middle East, as Turkey believes that dialogue and cooperation must be the major tools to bring about the desired peace, security and stability in the region. Turkey not only supported the Annapolis process, which has so far been stalled, but has also tried to establish an industrial zone first at the Erez check point with Gaza Strip and than in Tarqumia, West Bank in order to assist in the creation of jobs for Paletinians,drawing investments to the region and hence for the amelioration of economic and social situation of the Palestinians, as well as in the development of the regional economy in the medium and long term. This was hoped to contribute to the confidence building measures to facilitate the restoration of confidence between Israel and Palestine.

Turkey's energy needs and its objective to become the energy hub in the region compells it to further develop its relations with its neighbors to the East. With Azerbaijan its relations have always been very close and Turkey's new initiative to establish a Platform for Peace and Stability in the Sothern Caucasus may even serve as a necessary instrument for  furthering their cooperation in the region. Further to the East, beyond the Caspian, relations with Turkmenistan  have been revitalized with its new President Berdimuhammedov. However, as Turkmenistan has tied most of its gas reserves with Russia and the continental shelf dispute in the Caspian remains unresolved , not much progress could be achieved in the field of energy until new fields are explored.

Iran remains to be a country of concern for the international community because of its nuclear ambitions. In that respect Turkey advocates a diplomatic solution to this problem, suspension of uranium enrichment activities and full compliance with the strict IAEA inspection rules. Despite its military power and capabilities, as well as it NATO membeship, Turkey may be compelled to consider also to strengthen its defence capabilities. However, with a new President in the US and a Presidential election in Iran in mid 2009, some policy changes may be expected to reduce the existing tension to the relief of many in the region. On the other hand, bilateral relations with Iran is expanding. Visit of the President of Iran to Turkey was an important indication. Many agreements have been signed for cooperation in the field of energy and even joint venture for the exploration of new gas fields are envisaged. However, all these intended cooperations remain to be a hostage to the US Congress imposed regulations on economic relations with Iran.

The energy routes and major developments in the region make the Black Sea most  important for Turkey. In this region where Turkey has initiated the establishment of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation organization including states around and within the proximity of the Black Sea and later the formation of BLACKSEAFOR which includes only the littoral states, it has always encouraged regional cooperation in all fields which would produce peace and stability. However, at times of tension in the region, even when it is not directly involved, it feels the pulse even more than  most of the other states in the region  which makes it difficult for it to play the balancing role it wishes to do. Therefore,  in order to resist pressures of any kind, it has become vital for Turkey that the rules of the Montreux  Convention  are strictly observed.

As for relations with Armenia, there still remain difficulties. While Turkey has recognized the independence of Armenia as early as 16 December 1991 and in view of difficult economic conditions  it encountered after independence Turkey had not only sent humanitarian aid but had also signed an agreement with Armenia to facilitate the transit of EU assistance through its territory. Turkey had also invited Armenia to join the BSEC. However, agression and  ill-disposed policies pursued by Armenia towards its neighbors, continuing occupation of substantial parts of Azerbaijan, disregard of UN Security Council resolutions have prevented Turkey to establish diplomatic relations. So far Turkey has made many attempts. Turkey believes in the necessity to continue the process of dialogue by engaging Armenia and is willing to normalize its relations. The many rounds of talks have not produced satisfactory results. Meanwhile the Armenian diaspora has not played any positive role. However, following the election of  Serge Sarkisian to the Presidency this year a new initiative was taken and benefitting from an invitation by the Armenian President to attend the national football match in Yerivan, the Turkish President visited Armenia and on the side of this visit talks were held. Also the Foreign Ministers of the two countries  held  lengthy discussions during that visit and later during the UN General Assembly and the OSCE Ministerial meetings to normalize relations and  have started a process with inclusion of the Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan to help the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict eexisting between Armenia and Azerbaijan which has been poisoning relations among the three countries.

(24 December,2008 - Oktay Aksoy)